Future Migration Scenarios for Europe

Project Information

FUME

Grant agreement ID: 870649

DOI 10.3030/870649

Project closed

EC signature date 8 November 2019

Start date 1 December 2019

End date 31 May 2023

Funded under

• SOCIETAL CHALLENGES - Europe In A Changing World - Inclusive, Innovative And Reflective Societies

Total cost € 2 992 401,25

EU contribution € 2 992 401,25

Coordinated by

AALBORG UNIVERSITET
Denmark

Deliverables

Documents, reports (13)

Report on modelling approach and implementation

This report will summarise the modelling efforts and corresponding outputs from WP5

Set of maps

This deliverable will include maps figures and use other geovisualization tools such as story maps httpsstorymapsarcgiscomen to visualize different types of migration flows to and within Europe migrant populations in Europe and past and predicted population trends Maps will cover all EU member states The maps will serve among others as input for WP3 on scenario development

Report regarding to the study on patterns and determinants of residential mobility of immigrants and native populations of European cities, and on motivations and perceptions of migration among immigrant groups

Report summarising the findings from WP6

Report on available datasets and project results

This report will summarise the results of taels 2.2 to 2.4 for the public.

Case study reports regarding local context of migration in origin countries including comparative analysis of determinants of migration

Summary and analysis of origin case studies

Set of FUME global scenario narratives

A first confidential draft of the report for internal use in the consortium will be delivered in M12

Report on results of migration scenarios and their demographic impacts for EU member states and regions of origin

This report will summarise the analysis of the output for each migration scenario projected in Task 43 separately and also will compare different scenarios over time

Report on Delphi study

This report will summarise the results of a Delphi study in which the set of scenario narratives based on the matchings procedure will be presented to a panel of experts and policy makers to check the internal consistency between the different domains assess the probability of the scenarios and to fill possible gaps task 32

Report on migration and demographic patterns in the EU CEE countries and potential source countries of immigrants to this region including findings from the Polish case study with special focus on the socio- economic adaptation of Ukrainian immigrants

Summary of results from Thematic study 2

Communication and Dissemination Strategy

Preliminary versions of the strategy will be delivered in months 3 and 12

Set of FUME migration scenario narratives

A first confidential version of this report for internal use in the consortium will be delivered in M14

Set of policy recommendations

Report on policy recommendations for stakeholders including policy briefs The initial version of this deliverable is due in M12 and will be continuously updated until the end of the project

Report on drivers of international migration

This deliverable will focus on the assessment of existing knowledge on migration motives and potentials from different sources ie UN OECD World Bank Gallup IOM etc as well as on quantitative analyses of time trends of international migration and existing survey data regarding the relationship between international migration and its key determinants Attention will be paid among others to the role of existing livelihood opportunities eg inequalities income levels job opportunities traditional gender roles in countries of origin transnational networks EU policies to govern migration flows and labour markets and ageing populations in destination countries

Open Research Data Pilot (5)

Population dataset

For four European countries (Denmark, Poland, Netherlands and Italy) the same set of data shall be collected on a NUTS 2 level. These subnational data will serve as direct input to the regional migration scenarios developed in WP4. For both national and NUTS 2 level datasets, particular efforts will be placed on constructing datasets for time periods covering –if possible –the years 1990 to 2018. Data will be harmonized using the model described in Wisniowski et al. (2016).

Socio-economic dataset

Socioeconomic conditions and trends in Europe are also important drivers of migration WPs 3 to 6 will consider such conditions when developing scenarios and assumptions forthe migration and population projections This task will gather indicators data and evidence on socioeconomic trends in Europe The focus will be on nationallevel statistics for all European countries and on NUTS 2level statistics in the countries forwhich regional projections will be calculated in WP4 Denmark Poland Netherlands and Italy The dataset will contain information on trends among others for the following types of indicatorsincome employmentunemploymenteducationinterest ratesbenefit levels unemployment disability social assistance child benefits etcAs before time series shall to the largest extent possible cover the years 1990 to 2018

Migration stock and flow dataset

This deliverable will be a database of the migrant stocks and migration flows collected and harmonised in tasks 22 and 23

National level population and migration projections

This deliverable will summarise the outputs of the models developed in Task 42 Developing international migration projection model and Task 43 Developing the population projection model

Regional migration and population scenarios

This deliverable will summarise estimates of regional migration and population scenarios at NUTS 2 level for the countries Denmark Poland Italy and the Netherlands

Demonstrators, pilots, prototypes (1)

Model implementation and technical documentation

This demo will be developed in tasks 53 Initial model developmen and 54 Model training and optimization

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (1)

Project website

FUME project website

Other (2)

Model output data per destination case study

This dataset will summarise the model outputs for the destination case study cities

Structured dataset with geocoded data on location of immigrants and their characteristics and on pull factors of immigration and immigrant distribution in cities

Dataset resulting from thematic study 3

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (10)

Migration in the Mediterranean region: A response to crises and an emergency in its own right.

Author(s): Federico Benassi; Maria Carella; Frank Heins
Published in: Investigaciones Geográficas, Issue 77, 2022, Page(s) 15-36, ISSN 0213-4691
Publisher: University of Alicante
DOI: 10.14198/ingeo.19461

Estimating Future Migration Flows Under Social and Environmental Scenarios Taking Into Account Interactions: Insights From a Survey Among Migration Scholars

Author(s): Michaël Boissonneault; Petra Wieke de Jong
Published in: Frontiers in Human Dynamics, Issue 14, 2022, ISSN 2673-2726
Publisher: Frontiers
DOI: 10.3389/fhumd.2022.897562

Evaluation and extension of the radiation model for internal migration

Author(s): Lucas Kluge; Jacob Schewe
Published in: Physical Review E, Issue 104, 054311, 2021, ISSN 2470-0045
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.104.054311

Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return ows, and poverty constraints

Author(s): Albano Rikani, Jacob Schewe
Published in: Demographic Research, Issue 45, 2021, Page(s) 87–140, ISSN 1435-9871
Publisher: Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research/Max-Planck-institut fur Demografische Forschung
DOI: 10.4054/demres.2021.45.4

Closing disparities between European sending and receiving international migration flow data

Author(s): Guy J. Abel; Dilek Yildiz
Published in: Regional Studies, Regional Science, Issue 9(1), 2022, Page(s) 523-525, ISSN 2168-1376
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
DOI: 10.1080/21681376.2022.2096478

International Migration and the (Un)happiness Push: Evidence from Polish Longitudinal Data

Author(s): Jan Brzozowski, Nicola Coniglio
Published in: International Migration Review, Issue 55(5), 2021, Page(s) 1089-1120, ISSN 0197-9183
Publisher: Center for Migration Studies
DOI: 10.1177/01979183211004835

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries

Author(s): Miguel González-Leonardo , Michaela Potančoková, Dilek Yildiz, Francisco Rowe
Published in: PLOS ONE, Issue 18(1), 2023, Page(s) e0280324, ISSN 1932-6203
Publisher: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280324

Investigating neighbourhood concentration of immigrants in Poland: explorative evidence from Kraków

Author(s): Marcin Stonawski, Jan Brzozowski, Konrad Pędziwiatr, Marina Georgati
Published in: Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Issue 56, 2022, Page(s) 143-159, ISSN 1732-4254
Publisher: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu
DOI: 10.12775/bgss-2022-0019

Radiation model for migration with directional preferences

Author(s): Lucas Kluge; Anders Levermann; Jacob Schewe
Published in: Physical Review E, Issue 106, 064138, 2022, ISSN 2470-0045
Publisher: American Physical Society
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.106.064138

Now-casting Romanian migration into the United Kingdom by using Google Search engine data

Author(s): Andreea Avramescu, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
Published in: Demographic Research, Issue 45, 2021, Page(s) 1219–1254, ISSN 1435-9871
Publisher: Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research/Max-Planck-institut fur Demografische Forschung
DOI: 10.4054/demres.2021.45.40

Other (25)

ROMANIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Styrnol, Natalia; Wiktor-Mach, Dobrosława; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-053-5
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7784651

SLOVAKIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Magdziarz, Wiktor; Pędziwiatr, Konrad; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-054-2
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7785716

CROATIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Styrnol, Natalia; Wiktor-Mach, Dobrosława; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-047-4
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7778343

Improving the evidence for European migration policy making

Author(s): Sánchez Gassen, Nora
Published in: FUME Policy Brief, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-068-9
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8093814

SENEGAL: Drivers and trajectories of migration to Europe

Author(s): degli Uberti, Stefano; Heins, Frank; Sall, Mohamadou
Published in: Issue 6, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8189476

HUNGARY - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Magdziarz, Wiktor; Pędziwiatr, Konrad; Demeshok, Daryna; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-048-1
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7781975

Drivers of International Migration

Author(s): Heins, Frank; degli Uberti, Stefano; Bonifazi, Corrado; Crisci, Massimiliano; Paparusso, Angela; Pelliccia, Andrea; De Rocchi, Daniele; Vitielo, Mattia
Published in: 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8183340

Migration Scenario Narratives

Author(s): Yildiz, Dilek; Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz; Schewe, Jacob
Published in: Issue 2, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8183252

Polish case study: Results of the survey on immigrants coming to CEE

Author(s): Brzozowski, Jan; Stonawski, Marcin; Pędziwiatr, Konrad
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-055-9
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7794538

Delphi study - Future Migration Scenarios for Europe

Author(s): Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz; Campbell, Gregory; Kim, Ji Hye
Published in: Issue 4, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8183493

IRAQ: Drivers and Trajectories of Migration to Europe

Author(s): DIOP, Lanciné Eric Nestor; Kessler, Carsten; Basheer, Saeed
Published in: Issue 4, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8189420

UKRAINE: Drivers and Trajectories of Migration to Europe

Author(s): Soboleva, Olena; Yarosh, Oleg; Wiktor-Mach, Dobrosława; Pędziwiatr, Konrad
Published in: Issue 2, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8189593

LATVIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Brzozowski, Jan; Szkołut, Sylwia; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-050-4
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7782042

LITHUANIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Brzozowski, Jan; Wojno, Przemysław; Ćwiklicki, Marek; Chwat, Olivia
Published in: FUME Report, 2023
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7782041

BULGARIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Styrnol, Natalia; Wiktor-Mach, Dobrosława; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-045-0
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7777280

Migration scenarios and their demographic impacts for the EU member states

Author(s): Yildiz, Dilek; van Wissen, Leo; Olaya-Bucaro, Orlando; K.C., Samir
Published in: Issue 2, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8191587

Policy brief: Why do people migrate? Where do they choose to migrate?

Author(s): Sánchez Gassen, Nora; Heleniak, Timothy
Published in: FUME Policy Brief, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-044-3
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7754076

Migration and residential segregation in European cities – now and future

Author(s): Stonawski, Marcin; Georgati, Marina; Crisci, Massimiliano; van Wissen, Leo; Brzozowski, Jan
Published in: Issue 2, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8192025

SLOVENIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Styrnol, Natalia; Wiktor-Mach, Dobrosława; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-056-6
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7785750

SLOVAKIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Magdziarz, Wiktor; Pędziwiatr, Konrad; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-054-2
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7785717

TUNISIA: Drivers and trajectories of migration to Europe

Author(s): Sobczak-Szelc, Karolina; Pędziwiatr, Konrad; Boubakri, Hassen
Published in: Issue 7, 2023
Publisher: FUME
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.8189334

CZECH REPUBLIC - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Magdziarz, Wiktor; Pędziwiatr, Konrad; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-046-7
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7778399

POLAND - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Brzozowski, Jan; Chwat, Olivia; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-051-1
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7784303

Global Scenario Narratives

Author(s): Petra de Jong; Michaël Boissonneault
Published in: FUME Working Paper, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-020-7
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7777187

ESTONIA - Migration and demographic patterns in Central-Eastern Europe

Author(s): Brzozowski, Jan; Chwat, Olivia; Sikorska, Joanna
Published in: FUME Report, 2023, ISBN 978-91-8001-049-8
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7778436

Conference proceedings (2)

Spatially Explicit Population Projections: The case of Copenhagen, Denmark

Author(s): Marina Georgati, Carsten Keßler
Published in: AGILE: GIScience Series, Issue 2, 2021, Page(s) 28
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/agile-giss-2-28-2021

Spatial Disaggregation of Population Subgroups Leveraging Self-Trained Multi-Output Gradient Boosting Regression Trees

Author(s): Marina Georgati João Monteiro Bruno Martins Carsten Keßler
Published in: AGILE: GIScience Series, Issue 3, 5, 2022
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/agile-giss-3-5-2022