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The future of Arctic coastal ecosystems - Identifying transitions in fjord systems and adjacent coastal areas

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - FACE-IT (The future of Arctic coastal ecosystems - Identifying transitions in fjord systems and adjacent coastal areas)

Reporting period: 2022-05-01 to 2023-10-31

The Arctic is a harbinger of change on ecosystems and livelihoods. The EU funded project FACE-IT investigates the consequence of climate warming at various fjord systems across the European Arctic. It aims at a holistic understanding of the impact on Arctic marine biodiversity and Arctic societies. In a comparative approach, the project investigates seven fjord systems along a gradient of cryosphere loss in Greenland, Svalbard and Northern Norway.
The project follows the hypothesis that the biodiversity of Arctic coastal zones is changing in accordance with the rates of cryosphere changes, and that these changes affect local communities, livelihoods and other ecosystem services. FACE-IT involves Arctic stakeholders to ensure that Indigenous and local knowledges, perceptions and concerns are taken into account in defining management approaches. In this way, FACE-IT delivers significant contributions towards the implementation of the EU policy for the Arctic.
The objectives of the project are: 1. Characterize key drivers of biodiversity changes and their past and future trends. 2. Identify cascading effects into Arctic coastal food webs. 3. Assess the interdependencies between environmental changes and Arctic coastal livelihoods. 4. Support adaptive co-management at the local and national levels.
Intense research activities have been enfolded during the first 36 months of the project. An elemental activity has been the engagement with local and indigenous stakeholders to identify threats to food security, and risk of environmental degradation, as well as possibilities for new economic activities.

Work package (WP) 1 (Identify key drivers and data management) identified key drivers of change in Arctic fjord systems. It established a project-wide GitHub data repository and developed a data access app. The results assembled have been published in a large review paper with contributions from virtually all FACE-IT partners.

WP2 (Biodiversity changes) conducted two perturbation experiments, demonstrating the high level of resilience and adaptability of most of the kelp species inhabiting northern fjord systems. Fieldwork on atlantification effects have been conducted on a variety of taxa and trophic positions. Studies on microbial and plankton diversity has been carried out in Svalbard, and in Nuuk, Greenland. Cryptic diversity was examined for copepods in Svalbard waters. The effect of climate change on fish was assessed for Porsangerfjord (Northern Norway) showing that fish diversity increased due to the arrival of warm-water species. Monitoring data indicate a negative trend in general seabird demography. Marine mammal distribution around Svalbard is affected by the inflow of Atlantic water. Seaweed diversity has been studied in Kongsfjorden and possibly new species will be described for this location. Time series indicate that Arctic kelp species are differentially affected by the strong changes in environmental conditions and that overall community structure changed continuously.

WP3 (Ecosystem function changes) produced a spatially and temporally resolved database to combine primary production rates with environmental data. To quantify the impact of glacier retreat on pelagic primary production, existing data from the Greenland Ecosystem Monitoring Program was extended demonstrating that primary production decreased near exponentially with the increase in turbidity. A pan-Arctic analysis on Arctic marine vegetation was performed to model changes in potential distribution. Studies on seaweed production indicate that warming-induced northward expansion might be restricted by a deteriorating underwater light climate.

WP4 (Food provision and livelihoods) developed the research design and first scoping visits to case study regions in Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Ilulissat, Qeqertarsuaq, and Nuuk, Greenland. Interviews with stakeholders were carried out, and the team participated in a town hall meeting on new environmental regulations on Svalbard. Literature on fisheries in Isfjorden has been analyzed for its potential for developing fisheries in Svalbard. It was striking how diverse the FACE-IT study areas are in terms of culture, society, demography, economy, and environment, while facing mutual challenges.

WP5 (Nature-based tourism) developed the analytical framework for assessing local sustainability based on a literature review. Overall, people in Greenland are more involved in tourism than 10 years ago and there is real ownership of the industry in the local community. A similar study in Longyearbyen showed that there is a large overhaul of tourism, environmental regulation, and legislation on its way. The management challenges for the futures of Isfjorden and Longyearbyen in Svalbard and Nuup Kangerlua in Greenand mainly include high cost of investments in new infrastructure and search and rescue capacity.

WP6 (Transdisciplinary synthesis) performed a literature review of the concepts of transdisciplinarity, co-production of knowledge, and adaptive co-management. WP6 scientists met with local and national stakeholders at the field sites. Topics discussed include relevant drivers, historical and future perspectives, data availability and format, projections, and “indicators of ecosystem health” from the different science perspectives. For each of the study sites a list of potential challenges has been formulated by FACE-IT scientists and discussed with local stakeholders.

WP7 strengthened the cooperation with CHARTER and ECOTIP, H2020 projects funded under the same call, as well as with the EU Polar Cluster. These activities include the organisation of a policy meeting in Brussels in March 2023, the completion of an internal report about EU policy processes in the Arctic region, and the production of a policy brief presenting relevant findings from all WPs in FACE-IT.
It is the ambition of FACE-IT to predict the fate of Arctic social-ecological fjord systems by (i.) An open access meta-database for the European Arctic, (ii.) Crucial add-ons to time-series, (iii.) A modelling tool allowing an online coupling between physical-biogeochemical models with food web models, (iv.) An assessment of adaptation and governance options to secure the sustainability of societies in the European Arctic. The project is tightly linked to the approach of co-production of knowledge, meaning that knowledge and perception of stakeholders will take a crucial role for defining research priorities.

During the second reporting period large progress has been made (1.) towards the understanding of the relevant drivers of change, which represents the operational base for the research conducted; (2.) identifying differential responses to change in a wide range of taxa; (3.) contrasting global vs. local trends and (4.) including the stakeholders perspectives. This has been achieved by conducting two stakeholder workshops in each of the three study locations relevant to the social science sector in the project. The knowledge co-produced by FACE-IT so far has already been included in the policy dialogue.
Kittiwakes in front of the Blomstrand glacier (Kongsfjorden, Svalbard) Foto: GW Gabrielsen, NPI