Periodic Reporting for period 2 - FORCeS (Constrained aerosol forcing for improved climate projections)
Période du rapport: 2021-04-01 au 2022-09-30
i. New fundamental understanding of physical and chemical processes involving aerosols and clouds;
ii. Climate models with new and improved description of aerosols and aerosol-cloud interactions;
iii. Improved predictions of climate evolution in the context of climate policy, particularly the PA;
iv. Improved quantification and reduction of uncertainty related to aerosol radiative forcing, climate sensitivity and transient climate response.
FORCeS has made substantial progress towards these outcomes. All the planned laboratory and field experiments have been completed, despite the covid-19 pandemic. These observations provide unique and novel insights into aerosol-cloud interaction processes. Based on the fundamental knowledge base, we have made concrete recommendations on the representation of key components and processes governing aerosol-cloud interactions in ESMs. These recommendations are being implemented and tested in the FORCeS ESMs. Several new and complementary approaches to constraining equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) – parameters that are central for climate projections and hence steps towards meeting the PA targets – have emerged from FORCeS. In the last phase of FORCeS, the updated ESMs will be applied and compared against the benchmarking done during the first reporting period of the project to yield new improved estimates of the near-term climate projections.
The objectives of FORCeS are designed to meet the following impacts:
i. Supporting major international scientific assessments;
ii. Increase confidence in climate projections;
iii. Providing added value to decision- and policymakers;
iv. Sustaining Europe’s leadership in climate science.
FORCeS has made substantial progress towards these impacts. FORCeS results will be included in the upcoming IPCC AR6, and project participants have been highly involved in writing this report. FORCeS members have also contributed to the upcoming 2021 assessment report by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP). FORCeS has furthermore taken strategic steps towards enhancing the dialogue between different aerosol-cloud-climate research communities. These efforts will, together with the above work, lead to the desired increased confidence in climate projections. In a dialogue with stakeholders, FORCeS released its first two policy briefs (“Is there a conflict between the clean air goals of the European Green Deal and climate neutrality” and “Air quality and climate policies: Moving forward after COVID-19”), which have framed their questions in the context of the Paris agreement and disseminated the knowledge from the FORCeS community to the relevant policymakers. The third and final policy brief of the project will also have the Paris agreement as its important frame of reference. From a wider perspective, FORCeS provides essential information for developing cost effective multi-beneficial abatement strategies, providing better health and resilient food production, supporting several of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. The novel and innovative methods applied in FORCeS will improve three leading European ESMs. Together with educating and mentoring a cohort of active Early Career Scientists (ECSs), they help FORCeS promote and sustain Europe’s leading position in climate science.