Periodic Reporting for period 3 - NAVIGATE (Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2022-03-01 al 2023-12-31
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) play a central role for the assessment of mitigation pathways by the IPCC and are frequently used to inform national and international climate policy considerations. In NAVIGATE, the next generation of IAMs was developed and made more accessible to users in order to provide more targeted advice for the climate policy process in a post-Paris world. To achieve this, NAVIGATE successfully advanced IAM capabilities in the following key areas:
Structural and technological change: Macroeconomic and structural change scenarios including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic were developed. The impact of climate mitigation policies on structural changes at the macroeconomic level were shown to be small compared to the uncertainty about future structural transformations. Employment effects of the net zero transitions in the EU are generally positive, but there are winners and losers in terms of sectors and regions.
Behavioural change: NAVIGATE developed an open-source lifestyle typology with global universality for low-carbon research which was soft-coupled with a global IAM as a first-of-its-kind demonstration of endogenous modelling of lifestyle change. The main insight is that low-carbon lifestyle change interacts with - and can potentially amplify - the mitigation benefits of technological change. However, lifestyle change is highly variable across different population segments and ‘disengaged’ groups risk being marginalised in the absence of strong social learning on climate action.
Sector transformations: Models now represent a broader range of green technologies for industry and an extended portfolio of land-based mitigation options including technical mitigation options for non-CO2 emissions from agriculture and terrestrial carbon storage options with lower land demand. The modelling of the building sector was refined, e.g. with regard to energy demand scenarios or different types of building types and household preferences for deep renovation. In the transport sector, an improved understanding of the implications of infrastructure development and the transformation of consumer preferences was reached. The advancements were applied in model comparison studies which showed that the energy supply sector can reach net negative CO2 emissions by 2050 and the full portfolio of mitigation options can reduce emissions and limit energy demand simultaneously.
Distributional impacts: NAVIGATE analysed inequality and poverty implications of climate policies and climate impacts, household heterogeneity and revenue recycling, within-country inequality, and interaction of inequality and carbon pricing. It was shown that strong climate action will benefit poorer households in the long term, while in the near-term additional redistributive policies may be required to cushion regressive outcomes. However, there may be a trade-off between using carbon pricing revenues for reducing distortive labour taxes leading to higher economic growth, or for redistribution which is more conducive for equity.
NAVIGATE developed a methodology to downscale emissions and energy projections in IAM scenarios to the country level. The downscaling tool was applied in the development of climate transition scenarios for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS).
Mitigation benefits: In order to assess benefits of avoided impacts, the modelling of climate change impacts was improved and related to an assessment of regional/sectoral adaptation and adaptive capacity. In addition, an assessment to achieve nexus SDG objectives (climate-land-energy-water) including climate feedbacks was conducted, pointing towards clear synergies in near-term action to achieve the SDGs and climate mitigation.
Model transparency: The common IAM documentation (IAMC wiki) has been continuously used as the main platform to provide transparent and harmonised model documentation, e.g. for the AR6 WG III Annex C on Scenarios and Modelling Methods. In NAVIGATE, several model comparison functions (e.g. search filters), data export options, a diagnostic assessment of the models’ key behaviour in response to climate policy incentives, and a linkage to the AR6 Scenario Explorer and Database have been added. This directly provides quantitative information on key input assumptions for the models. A primer on IAMs is available as an introductory resource for those less familiar with IAMs.
A synthesis model comparison study showed that the simultaneous and immediate use of all advanced mitigation measures across sectors can substantially accelerate action and close the gap between a pathway limiting warming to well below 2°C and a pathway compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100. Results from the project were synthesised in a final report (https://www.navigate-h2020.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/NAVIGATE-synthesis-report-compressed.pdf) and presented during a final event at the EC in Brussels and at a side event at COP28 in Dubai. All modelling tools, scenarios and information material that were developed during the course of the project are available on the NAVIGATOR platform: https://www.navigate-h2020.eu/navigator/.
Structural and technological change: Macroeconomic and structural change scenarios including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic were developed. The impact of climate mitigation policies on structural changes at the macroeconomic level were shown to be small compared to the uncertainty about future structural transformations. Employment effects of the net zero transitions in the EU are generally positive, but there are winners and losers in terms of sectors and regions.
Behavioural change: NAVIGATE developed an open-source lifestyle typology with global universality for low-carbon research which was soft-coupled with a global IAM as a first-of-its-kind demonstration of endogenous modelling of lifestyle change. The main insight is that low-carbon lifestyle change interacts with - and can potentially amplify - the mitigation benefits of technological change. However, lifestyle change is highly variable across different population segments and ‘disengaged’ groups risk being marginalised in the absence of strong social learning on climate action.
Sector transformations: Models now represent a broader range of green technologies for industry and an extended portfolio of land-based mitigation options including technical mitigation options for non-CO2 emissions from agriculture and terrestrial carbon storage options with lower land demand. The modelling of the building sector was refined, e.g. with regard to energy demand scenarios or different types of building types and household preferences for deep renovation. In the transport sector, an improved understanding of the implications of infrastructure development and the transformation of consumer preferences was reached. The advancements were applied in model comparison studies which showed that the energy supply sector can reach net negative CO2 emissions by 2050 and the full portfolio of mitigation options can reduce emissions and limit energy demand simultaneously.
Distributional impacts: NAVIGATE analysed inequality and poverty implications of climate policies and climate impacts, household heterogeneity and revenue recycling, within-country inequality, and interaction of inequality and carbon pricing. It was shown that strong climate action will benefit poorer households in the long term, while in the near-term additional redistributive policies may be required to cushion regressive outcomes. However, there may be a trade-off between using carbon pricing revenues for reducing distortive labour taxes leading to higher economic growth, or for redistribution which is more conducive for equity.
NAVIGATE developed a methodology to downscale emissions and energy projections in IAM scenarios to the country level. The downscaling tool was applied in the development of climate transition scenarios for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS).
Mitigation benefits: In order to assess benefits of avoided impacts, the modelling of climate change impacts was improved and related to an assessment of regional/sectoral adaptation and adaptive capacity. In addition, an assessment to achieve nexus SDG objectives (climate-land-energy-water) including climate feedbacks was conducted, pointing towards clear synergies in near-term action to achieve the SDGs and climate mitigation.
Model transparency: The common IAM documentation (IAMC wiki) has been continuously used as the main platform to provide transparent and harmonised model documentation, e.g. for the AR6 WG III Annex C on Scenarios and Modelling Methods. In NAVIGATE, several model comparison functions (e.g. search filters), data export options, a diagnostic assessment of the models’ key behaviour in response to climate policy incentives, and a linkage to the AR6 Scenario Explorer and Database have been added. This directly provides quantitative information on key input assumptions for the models. A primer on IAMs is available as an introductory resource for those less familiar with IAMs.
A synthesis model comparison study showed that the simultaneous and immediate use of all advanced mitigation measures across sectors can substantially accelerate action and close the gap between a pathway limiting warming to well below 2°C and a pathway compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100. Results from the project were synthesised in a final report (https://www.navigate-h2020.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/NAVIGATE-synthesis-report-compressed.pdf) and presented during a final event at the EC in Brussels and at a side event at COP28 in Dubai. All modelling tools, scenarios and information material that were developed during the course of the project are available on the NAVIGATOR platform: https://www.navigate-h2020.eu/navigator/.
The partners worked on
• taking stock of the state of the art on IAMs, including the publication of 18 peer-reviewed papers for the 6th Assessment Report of the IPCC
• analysing impacts of COVID-19
• Completing pilot advancements of IAM frameworks in all demand sectors, e.g. via connecting to relevant domain knowledge, and in other key areas as structural change, lifestyle changes, spatial and social heterogeneity, and climate impacts
• Enhancing the transparency of IAMs, including stakeholder dialogues, webinars on selected recent IAM developments, summer schools, exchanges, a number of outreach activities communicating research results, the update and inclusion of all NAVIGATE model documentations in the IAMC wiki, the provision of all project material including datasets, scenarios, and modelling tools on the NAVIGATOR
• Model comparisons and academic publications
• Communication and dissemination of results, including the organisation of webinars, presentations at several conferences, a final event with stakeholders in Brussels, and a side event at COP28 in Dubai. A synthesis report on key project findings was published and circulated at the final event in Brussels and COP28. NAVIGATE also provided input to the EC´s consultation on defining the EU 2040 target.
• taking stock of the state of the art on IAMs, including the publication of 18 peer-reviewed papers for the 6th Assessment Report of the IPCC
• analysing impacts of COVID-19
• Completing pilot advancements of IAM frameworks in all demand sectors, e.g. via connecting to relevant domain knowledge, and in other key areas as structural change, lifestyle changes, spatial and social heterogeneity, and climate impacts
• Enhancing the transparency of IAMs, including stakeholder dialogues, webinars on selected recent IAM developments, summer schools, exchanges, a number of outreach activities communicating research results, the update and inclusion of all NAVIGATE model documentations in the IAMC wiki, the provision of all project material including datasets, scenarios, and modelling tools on the NAVIGATOR
• Model comparisons and academic publications
• Communication and dissemination of results, including the organisation of webinars, presentations at several conferences, a final event with stakeholders in Brussels, and a side event at COP28 in Dubai. A synthesis report on key project findings was published and circulated at the final event in Brussels and COP28. NAVIGATE also provided input to the EC´s consultation on defining the EU 2040 target.
NAVIGATE synthesised its advances towards the next generation of IAMs in two final products. First, a synthesis report for policy makers and other users collected newly-gained policy insights. Second, the IAM NAVIGATOR is a toolbox for accessing tools developed, results generated, and capacity building material developed during the course of the project. The objective of the IAM NAVIGATOR is to foster uptake of IAM advances and new policy insights by users, experts in related fields, and the IAM community itself.
With these outputs, NAVIGATE contributed to supporting EU climate policy, provided input to major scientific assessments such as the IPCC reports, enhanced international cooperation, fostered innovative policy-making through robust methodologies and tools and reduction of uncertainties and improved the legitimacy of models, methods and tools through greater transparency. With the work performed in the project, the partners contributed to create these results and impacts.
With these outputs, NAVIGATE contributed to supporting EU climate policy, provided input to major scientific assessments such as the IPCC reports, enhanced international cooperation, fostered innovative policy-making through robust methodologies and tools and reduction of uncertainties and improved the legitimacy of models, methods and tools through greater transparency. With the work performed in the project, the partners contributed to create these results and impacts.