Periodic Reporting for period 2 - RISE (Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction for a Resilient Europe)
Période du rapport: 2021-09-01 au 2023-05-31
RISE aims to revolutionize the perception and management of earthquake risk through a transformative approach. By leveraging scientific advancements and technological capabilities, the project envisions earthquake hazard and risk as dynamic and interconnected rather than static over time. The main goal of RISE is to enhance Europe's ability to mitigate earthquake risks in real-time, fostering resilience and minimizing the detrimental effects of future seismic events. Overall objectives are:
● Advance real-time seismic risk reduction capacities of European societies by transitioning to a new concept of dynamic risk.
● Improve short-term forecasting and operational earthquake forecasting by developing and validating the next generation of forecasting models.
● Enhance the quality of earthquake prediction and earthquake forecasting by launching a European collaborative effort for validation and rigorous testing.
● Contribute to the establishment of sound and rational risk reduction procedures
● Improve the preparedness of societies, emergency managers, and long-term recovery management.
● Advance real-time seismic risk reduction capacities of European societies by transitioning to a new concept of dynamic risk.
● Improve short-term forecasting and operational earthquake forecasting by developing and validating the next generation of forecasting models.
● Enhance the quality of earthquake prediction and earthquake forecasting by launching a European collaborative effort for validation and rigorous testing.
● Contribute to the establishment of sound and rational risk reduction procedures
● Improve the preparedness of societies, emergency managers, and long-term recovery management.
WP1 has been responsible for the project management of RISE from a technical, administrative and financial perspective. The primary focus has been to deliver the RISE project within the budget and timeline specified in the proposal. WP1 oversaw the project development progress and the overall impact.
WP2 focused on innovation to enhance the forecasting of dynamic risk. We have made advancements in technology, including low-cost seismographs for recording ground motions and assessing building responses to ground motion. Additionally, we have successfully tested distributed acoustic sensors for challenging environments. Our data analysis techniques have improved with high-resolution earthquake catalogues and real-time monitoring of crustal stress. We have also developed strategies for data access and archival, including cloud-based services, and created an open European exposure model.
WP3 dealt with advancing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) capabilities at different spatial scales by (i) improving our understanding of the earthquake generation process and (ii) developing various forecasting models to translate new-gained insights into improved forecasts.
WP4 focused on loss and resilience assessment for earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake loss forecasting (OELF). The main objectives are to develop real-time seismic structural assessment tools, operationalize earthquake loss forecasting, advance recovery forecasting and resilience assessment, enhance technologies for structural health monitoring, improve early warning algorithms for real buildings, and develop a risk-cost-benefit analysis framework.
WP5 aimed to provide clear and timely information to policymakers, the public, and specific geographical areas at risk of earthquakes. It explored crowdsourced early warning systems, collected eyewitness observations, and improved rapid situation awareness. The specific objectives include understanding decision-making environments, reviewing best practices in risk communication, developing a user-centered communication method, enhancing internet-based questionnaires for two-way communication, and utilizing existing apps for crowdsourced early warning and rapid impact assessment.
WP6 focused on pilot and demonstration activities to showcase the applications of OEF, EEW, RLA, and SHM at various scales. The main objectives are to demonstrate the use of big data for risk mitigation at the city level, showcase national-level applications in Italy and Iceland, develop a user-centric risk framework for Switzerland, and progress towards European-level services. The following sections provide an overview of the main achievements in each task of WP6.
WP7 focused on rigorous testing and validation of dynamic risk model components for decision-making and loss reduction. It utilized the CSEP platform to test earthquake prediction algorithms globally. Objectives include implementing CSEP 2.0 in Europe, collaborating through open-source software, conducting independent evaluations of RISE OEF candidate models, and developing testing approaches for other dynamic risk model components.
WP8 focused on maximizing the broad and lasting societal, economic, and scientific impact of RISE. It ensures ongoing dialogue with stakeholders and end-users, adopting an interdisciplinary approach. WP8 translates RISE outputs into tangible products and services, serving various stakeholders. It also includes comprehensive communication, dissemination, exploitation, and decision-support activities to prioritize impact.
WP2 focused on innovation to enhance the forecasting of dynamic risk. We have made advancements in technology, including low-cost seismographs for recording ground motions and assessing building responses to ground motion. Additionally, we have successfully tested distributed acoustic sensors for challenging environments. Our data analysis techniques have improved with high-resolution earthquake catalogues and real-time monitoring of crustal stress. We have also developed strategies for data access and archival, including cloud-based services, and created an open European exposure model.
WP3 dealt with advancing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) capabilities at different spatial scales by (i) improving our understanding of the earthquake generation process and (ii) developing various forecasting models to translate new-gained insights into improved forecasts.
WP4 focused on loss and resilience assessment for earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake loss forecasting (OELF). The main objectives are to develop real-time seismic structural assessment tools, operationalize earthquake loss forecasting, advance recovery forecasting and resilience assessment, enhance technologies for structural health monitoring, improve early warning algorithms for real buildings, and develop a risk-cost-benefit analysis framework.
WP5 aimed to provide clear and timely information to policymakers, the public, and specific geographical areas at risk of earthquakes. It explored crowdsourced early warning systems, collected eyewitness observations, and improved rapid situation awareness. The specific objectives include understanding decision-making environments, reviewing best practices in risk communication, developing a user-centered communication method, enhancing internet-based questionnaires for two-way communication, and utilizing existing apps for crowdsourced early warning and rapid impact assessment.
WP6 focused on pilot and demonstration activities to showcase the applications of OEF, EEW, RLA, and SHM at various scales. The main objectives are to demonstrate the use of big data for risk mitigation at the city level, showcase national-level applications in Italy and Iceland, develop a user-centric risk framework for Switzerland, and progress towards European-level services. The following sections provide an overview of the main achievements in each task of WP6.
WP7 focused on rigorous testing and validation of dynamic risk model components for decision-making and loss reduction. It utilized the CSEP platform to test earthquake prediction algorithms globally. Objectives include implementing CSEP 2.0 in Europe, collaborating through open-source software, conducting independent evaluations of RISE OEF candidate models, and developing testing approaches for other dynamic risk model components.
WP8 focused on maximizing the broad and lasting societal, economic, and scientific impact of RISE. It ensures ongoing dialogue with stakeholders and end-users, adopting an interdisciplinary approach. WP8 translates RISE outputs into tangible products and services, serving various stakeholders. It also includes comprehensive communication, dissemination, exploitation, and decision-support activities to prioritize impact.
In RISE, WP2 introduced innovations such as distributed acoustic sensing, affordable high-performance accelerometers, building response characterization, high-resolution earthquake catalogues, seismic interferometry, scalable data access, and an open European building-by-building exposure model.
WP3 and WP7 were closely connected, focusing on earthquake predictability and improving forecast evaluation. This involved developing probabilistic forecasting models, collecting insights for testing in WP7, and providing best practices through surveys and expert workshops.
WP4 and 6 developed the second generation of dynamic risk products for Europe. This included releasing a database of building exposure models, updating exposure models during events, creating vulnerability curves and state-dependent fragility models, and integrating them into the MANTIS 2.0 system. Real-Time Loss Tools, an open-source software for dynamic risk analysis, was also developed.
In WP5, emphasis was on public engagement and dynamic risk communication. This involved using crowdsourced data for early warning and impact assessment, developing models for seismic rupture computation, implementing a rapid traffic light system, addressing uncertainty in earthquake risk communication, and designing multi-hazard communication tools.
WP3 and WP7 were closely connected, focusing on earthquake predictability and improving forecast evaluation. This involved developing probabilistic forecasting models, collecting insights for testing in WP7, and providing best practices through surveys and expert workshops.
WP4 and 6 developed the second generation of dynamic risk products for Europe. This included releasing a database of building exposure models, updating exposure models during events, creating vulnerability curves and state-dependent fragility models, and integrating them into the MANTIS 2.0 system. Real-Time Loss Tools, an open-source software for dynamic risk analysis, was also developed.
In WP5, emphasis was on public engagement and dynamic risk communication. This involved using crowdsourced data for early warning and impact assessment, developing models for seismic rupture computation, implementing a rapid traffic light system, addressing uncertainty in earthquake risk communication, and designing multi-hazard communication tools.