Risultati finali
"Developed at the beginning of the project and reviewed periodically. Initial version of DMP; M18,M30,M42: yearly review of DMP. The consortium will look into the ethics and privacy concerns for all data collected and used in the project. The consortium will use the ""How to complete your ethics Self-Assessment"" (http://ec.europa.eu/research/participants/portal/doc/call/h2020/h2020-msca-itn-2015/1620147-h2020_-_guidance_ethics_self_assess_en.pdf) document as a guideline. The DMP will incorporate measures to mitigate ethics and privacy concerns, in particular those related to personal data and data coming from third countries."
The three outof the five baseline storylines that were developed in deliverable 61 have been simulated with the numerical economic model Acclimate on the observed economic network of the past and compared to observations task 631
Assessment of correlated aspects of hotspot responses to climate changeDrawing on the assessments of the effect of climate change on the storylines for each sector performed within the sectoral WPs, ensure physical consistency between those assessments and identify any correlated (including potentially anti-correlated) risks. The latter will be done by identifying common physical drivers of the different circulation regimes.
Report on assessing storylines for future risks for public and private finance under future scenarios"The deliverable will present the assessment of storylines for future impacts on public private finance under the RECEIPT ""Paris Scenarios."""
risks posed by future climate variability to development, stability and resilience of strategic countriesReport will summarise the impacts of future climate change and variability on development, resilience and socio-political stability of the EU partner countries and regions selected in the task T5.1.
Report on current risks for public and private financeRThe deliverable will present the assessment of storylines for current impacts on i public finance CATSIM and ii private finance in particular on insurance CLIMADA DIFI international equity GDyn and foreign direct investment FTAP
Direct and indirect Economic effects to infrastructure from sea level rise and arctic sea ice extentThis deliverable describes the effects from SLR scenario and ice extent projection on coastal and regional SLR and sea ice extent on coastal infrastructure and shipping routes, respectively. Each scenario will be assessed using different adaptation options and shows how risk can be reduce by adaptation (Task 7.4).
storylines on climate change induced risk of selected EU strategic partner countriesIt will summarise the co-created storylines (content) on climate change induced risk to sustainable development and climate resilience of selected EU strategic partner countries and how they were developed (process). The report will be produced to enable assessing coherence of the storylines developed across the various sectors (WP3-7). It will contain the results of the desk review, consultations with societal stakeholders and the workshop held by WP5.
risks posed by current climate variability to development, stability and resilience of strategic countriesReport will summarise the results of an analyse of how current climate variability and observed climate change affected development progress resilience to weather and climate related shocks and sociopolitical stability of the EU partner countries and regions selected in the task T51
Development of adaptation measures and verification of effectiveness using Acclimate modelAdaptation measures to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience are developed: Adaptation measures that reduce the economic impact of remote weather extremes have been developed and tested in Acclimate (task 6.4). The effectiveness of the measure was demonstrated and verified within the numerical model Acclimate.
Future climate scenario's: SLR and sea ice extentThis deliverable describes the development of future SLR and sea ice extent scenarios Each SLR contributor sea level contributors eg thermal expansion instability Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets glaciers ocean circulation and land water storage will be included in the assessment KNMI Task 74 Sea ice extent will be derived from CMIP56
Report on policy recommendationsReport on policy recommendations summarising the existing and identifying new opportunities the EU has to protect itself from remote climate change impacts
Communication and visualization strategyThe strategy will be developed together with NLeSc and with contributions from other project partners Emphasis will be on using interactive webbased visual tools for exploration of climate change impact scenarios and stories
Storylines and the assessment of policy strategies to adapt against and explore the biophysical and potential of climate eventsThis deliverable presents the outcomes of the storylines from the stakeholders/users perspective and provides the relevance to different EU policies including policy strategy options to adapt against spill-over climate impacts (outcome of Task 3.5).
Agro-food Storylines descriptionThis deliverable presents the storylines describing how the European agro-food economy and food security might be impacted by climate change related to the EU’s global dependency on agricultural products. It will map and assess a selection of key-traded agricultural products and producing regions (outcome of Task 3.1).
External guidance on storyline development based on RECEIPT research and lessons learntDefine a generalized approach for constructing storylines for other contexts beyond the ones in the scope of this proposal. Linked to task 2.5.
Current climate: Flood risk and sea ice simulations for different storylinesThis deliverable is a report that describes the results from a modelling exercise to simulate flood risk for different storylines assuming the current climate IVM Task 73 This includes both direct damages to European coastal infrastructure and indirect economic effects from storm surges In addition changes in sea ice extent scenarios will be used to assess the effect on shipping routes using a CGE model CCMC Task 73 Economic impacts of the European level NUTS2 will be presented and compared with the national scale analysis for the UK using the innovative UK Future Flood Explorer FFE SPL Task 73
Assessment of the value of storylines for stakeholdersAssessment of the value of the developed storylines in enhancing stakeholders’ understanding about climate change impacts and informing their decision-making through stakeholder interviews. Linked to task 2.4.
Storylines development and description incl. hotspot selectionThis deliverable presents storylines and selects hotspots jointly with WP2 for studying the impacts on European public and private finance caused by climate induced or amplified natural disasters outside the EU and in EU outermost regions and overseas territories.
Storylines descriptionThis deliverable is an internal report describing the storylines and dependencies between impacts to European coastal infrastructure from changes in sea level rise and sea ice extent. The report will be based on an expert workshop, literature review, and the outcome of the kick off meeting (Tasks 7.1 and 7.2), and will qualitatively map both the direct damages to coastal infrastructure and indirect economic effects. In addition, effects from changing sea ice on shipping routes will be assessed.
Report on the assessment of biophysical, social and economic impacts of key-imported products' climate change vulnerability to EU's food security and agri-food economyThis deliverable presents social and economic impacts of climate change susceptibilities of the key-traded agricultural products to the EU’s food security and agro-food economy (outcome of Task 3.4).
Synthesis report on future risks and options for building resilience for public and private financeThe report will synthesize climate impacts and risks across the finance channels examined in the previous WP4 tasks and lay out policy recommendations for building resilience in close cooperation with WP8.
Generic internal guidance on storyline developmentA generic internal guidance document on how to construct storylines (including avoiding biases amongst experts, ensuring causality, etc.) based on review storyline development across scientific fields, including physical climate sciences, environmental modelling and other fields. Linked to task 2.1.
Synthesis report on future risks and adaptation options for building resilience in strategic countriesReport will synthesize the current and future risks identified throughout Task 5.1-5.4 in the selected partner countries and regions, and rank them based on the perceived importance of the partners’ societal organisation, and explore to what extent the EU external actions on development and humanitarian aid may counteract these threats.
Report on climate change impacts on imported crops in producing regionsThis deliverable presents climate change impacts on crop yields in the selected hotspot locations and assesses the impact of compound events on the EU. It will further consider the EU’s external dependency based on future projections of the EU’s demand, climate suitability, and land and water availability under climate change (outcome of Task 3.3).
Report on cumulative expenditure incurredWith the last reporting period extended from 18 to 22 months, a ‘report on cumulative expenditure incurred’ is necessary (Art.20.5) to be submitted in the form of a deliverable in November.
Policy briefsPolicy briefs conveying the message of policy recommendations documented in Deliverable 8.3
Side event reportReport from organized/co-organized side events/parallel sessions contributing to policy coherence and cohesive resilience in Europe
Pan-European risk assessmentPan-European risk assessment (report) on the combined effects of sectorial impacts arising from future climate change and variability from outside of Europe
Simulation of future storylines under different socio-economic scenarios with Acclimate modelThe simulation of the three future storylines under different socio-economic scenarios is accomplished (task 6.3.2): The three storylines have been projected into the future under different socio-economic assumptions including model-parameter uncertainty. The scientific publication is being prepared.
Report on current vulnerabilities and sensitivitiesThis deliverable presents current vulnerabilities of the keytraded crops from the perspective of water scarcity in the crop producing regions and historical impacts of extreme weather events in producing regions outcome of Task 32
SAB review minutes M36Minutes Societal Advisory Board review M36; will be available before 2nd progress report covering M19-M36
SAB review minutes M18Minutes of Review meeting Societal Advisory board will be available before 1st Progress report covering M1M18
Sectoral harmonisation reportHarmonisation report on efforts undertaken to make the sectorial analysis in WP3-WP7 consistent in terms of socio-economic assumptions and representation of climate impacts and conducive to a comprehensive EU wide analysis
Initial mapping of global climate hotspot areas in WP3-7 contextsInitial mapping of global climate hotspot areas, aiming to achieve a balance between representing the most important climate vulnerabilities for each sector, limiting the list of hotspots to a manageable number, and understanding the relationships between different hotspots (e.g. water availability and agricultural drought in the same region). Linked to task 2.2.
Interactive online game to illustrate the vulnerabilities of stakeholders in different sectors to remote climate change impacts.
RECEIPT WebsiteRECEIPT website will give visibility to the storylines and contain all relevant project information. Access points to the storyline visualization tools developed by NLeSc will be integrated in the website.
Storyline teller toolAn online visualization tool that enables users to explore storylines and gain insight into the effects of climate change scenarios.
Logo and visual identityAn attractive logo and visual identity
Communication campaignCommunication campaign disseminating the project results towards policy-makers, stakeholders and media using the visual tools developed.
Storyline videoA video showing the dependency of the EU on external direct and indirect factors and therefore its vulnerability to remote climate impacts
Storyline builder toolA dynamic webbased tool for scientists to document storyline creation
Pubblicazioni
Autori:
Theresa Falkendal, Christian Otto, Jacob Schewe, Jonas Jägermeyr, Megan Konar, Matti Kummu, Ben Watkins, Michael J. Puma
Pubblicato in:
Nature Food, Numero 2/1, 2021, Pagina/e 11-14, ISSN 2662-1355
Editore:
Nature Food
DOI:
10.1038/s43016-020-00211-7
Autori:
Reinhard Mechler; T. Deubelli
Pubblicato in:
Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Numero 1, 2021, ISSN 1877-3435
Editore:
Elsevier BV
DOI:
10.1016/j.cosust.2021.03.012
Autori:
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
Pubblicato in:
Progress in Disaster Science, Numero 1, 2021, ISSN 2590-0617
Editore:
Elsevier Ltd
DOI:
10.1016/j.pdisas.2021.100176
Autori:
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler; Karina Reiter
Pubblicato in:
International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, Numero 1, 2021, ISSN 2212-4209
Editore:
Elsevier Limited
DOI:
10.1007/s13753-021-00366-2
Autori:
Alessio Ciullo; Alessio Ciullo; Olivia Martius; Eric Strobl; David N. Bresch; David N. Bresch
Pubblicato in:
Climate Risk Management, Numero 1, 2021, ISSN 2212-0963
Editore:
Elsevier
DOI:
10.5281/zenodo.4733670
Autori:
Benedikt Mester; Benedikt Mester; Sven Willner; Katja Frieler; Jacob Schewe
Pubblicato in:
Environmental Research Letters, Numero 1, 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore:
Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI:
10.1088/1748-9326/ac188d
Autori:
Tim H. J. Hermans, Dewi Le Bars, Caroline A. Katsman, Carolina M. L. Camargo, Theo Gerkema, Francisco M. Calafat, Jonathan Tinker, Aimée B. A. Slangen
Pubblicato in:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Numero 125/10, 2020, ISSN 2169-9275
Editore:
Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Oceans
DOI:
10.1029/2020jc016325
Autori:
Erwin Lambert, Dewi Le Bars, Heiko Goelzer, Roderik S.W. van de Wal
Pubblicato in:
Earth's Future, Numero 9/2, 2021, ISSN 2328-4277
Editore:
Earth's Future
DOI:
10.1029/2020ef001825
Autori:
Jana Sillmann, Theodore G. Shepherd, Bart van den Hurk, Wilco Hazeleger, Olivia Martius, Julia Slingo, Jakob Zscheischler
Pubblicato in:
Earth's Future, Numero 9/2, 2021, ISSN 2328-4277
Editore:
Earth's Future
DOI:
10.1029/2020ef001783
Autori:
Franziska Gaupp
Pubblicato in:
One Earth, Numero 2/6, 2020, Pagina/e 518-521, ISSN 2590-3322
Editore:
CellPress
DOI:
10.1016/j.oneear.2020.06.001
Autori:
Kilian Kuhla; Sven Willner; Christian Otto; Tobias Geiger; Anders Levermann
Pubblicato in:
Environmental Research Letters, Numero 1, 2021, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore:
Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI:
10.1088/1748-9326/ac2932
Autori:
Robin Middelanis, Sven Norman Willner, Kilian Kuhla, Lennart Quante, Christian Otto, Anders Levermann
Pubblicato in:
Environmental Research Letters, Numero 18, 2023, Pagina/e 094034, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore:
Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI:
10.1088/1748-9326/acec5e
Autori:
Bart van den Hurk, Alexander Bisaro, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Robert J. Nicholls, Katrin Rehdanz, Dana Stuparu
Pubblicato in:
Climate Risk Management, Numero 35, 2022, Pagina/e 100403, ISSN 2212-0963
Editore:
Elsevier
DOI:
10.1016/j.crm.2022.100403
Autori:
Max Tesselaar, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts
Pubblicato in:
Atmosphere, Numero 11/2, 2020, Pagina/e 146, ISSN 2073-4433
Editore:
Rotoweb Cantelli
DOI:
10.3390/atmos11020146
Autori:
Giuseppe Zappa, Emanuele Bevacqua, Theodore G. Shepherd
Pubblicato in:
International Journal of Climatology, Numero 41/6, 2021, Pagina/e 3657-3669, ISSN 0899-8418
Editore:
John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI:
10.1002/joc.7041
Autori:
Regina R Rodrigues, Theodore G Shepherd
Pubblicato in:
PNAS Nexus, Numero 1, 2024, ISSN 2752-6542
Editore:
Oxford University Press
DOI:
10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac009
Autori:
Alessio Ciullo, Eric Strobl, Simona Meiler, Olivia Martius, David N. Bresch
Pubblicato in:
Nature Communications, Numero 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore:
Nature Publishing Group
DOI:
10.1038/s41467-023-36539-4
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