Periodic Reporting for period 3 - RECEIPT (REmote Climate Effects and their Impact on European sustainability, Policy and Trade)
Reporting period: 2022-03-01 to 2023-12-31
RECEIPT maps the sensitivity of five European socio-economic sectors to climate change features that occur outside its borders. Through trade, supply chains and multiple global interconnections climate change in other parts of the world indirectly affects the European society. Recent disasters such as hurricane Sandy (2011) or the Thailand floods (2011) show that the multidimensional and complex nature of interactions and remote climate effects are not well understood.
The project focused on five sectors: agriculture, finance, international development, manufacturing and coastal infrastructure. Exploring and understanding remote climate effects involves wide-ranging and complex analysis and interpretation. In RECEIPT we took a bottom-up approach and kept a sector-oriented perspective. We have built sectoral ‘storylines’: narratives of consistent and plausible chains of events, stories and data that illustrate risk-oriented cause-effect interactions. The impact of climate change is felt by stakeholders in these sectors in different ways. The storylines evaluate drivers and impacts of specific events, and map changing climatic and socio-economic drivers onto the cause-effect chains, in order to illustrate the implications of climate change in a world different from today.
The project focused on five sectors: agriculture, finance, international development, manufacturing and coastal infrastructure. Exploring and understanding remote climate effects involves wide-ranging and complex analysis and interpretation. In RECEIPT we took a bottom-up approach and kept a sector-oriented perspective. We have built sectoral ‘storylines’: narratives of consistent and plausible chains of events, stories and data that illustrate risk-oriented cause-effect interactions. The impact of climate change is felt by stakeholders in these sectors in different ways. The storylines evaluate drivers and impacts of specific events, and map changing climatic and socio-economic drivers onto the cause-effect chains, in order to illustrate the implications of climate change in a world different from today.
RECEIPT was implemented in three distinct pillars.
The first was the elaboration of the concept of “physical climate storylines”. The project team developed protocols for the construction of climate storylines, engagement rules to connect them to real world problems, visualization techniques, and principles to perturb storylines to “virtual” counterfactual conditions. We documented several steps in the scientific literature and evolved the knowledge on the power and limitations of the storyline approach, the ways to connect multiple disciplines, the ethical considerations of inevitable subjective assumptions on conditions, actors, and metrics.
The second pillar was the compilation of more than a dozen sector-oriented storylines. We contacted potential stakeholders that provided the justification of selected events, we connected impact cascades and gave information on responses and policies that could be explored. The project team has set-up multiple model frameworks connecting physical, mathematical, and socio-economic process representations. Early career scientists were sent to partner institutes to cross disciplinary bridges, and quite a few multi-disciplinary teams jointly conceived scientific publications, web-based visualizations, and policy-oriented factsheets to document these practical implementations of the conceptual approach.
The third pillar addresses European policy making, by formulating recommendations in policy briefs and public conferences. The risk assessment conducted using the storyline approach represents an evolutionary advancement in the theoretical underpinnings and practice of assessing the implications of climate related hazards and risks. Building resilience to complex and interconnected risks is crucial for EU prosperity and cohesion. Navigating future protracted and overlapping crises requires grasping interconnected causes and embracing a comprehensive approach to climate risks. Climate storylines delve into alternative ways that past climate extremes could have unfolded. By combining the robustness of forensic risk diagnostics with foresight techniques, storytelling climate risks enhance advanced risk anticipation and the efficacy of stress tests. Collaboratively designed and standardized storylines of climate risks, developed in partnership with risk modelers, public authorities, and regulators, can significantly enhance climate intelligence to drive transformative change.
Despite the inherent need to embark on a limited subset of stories being told and policy perspectives being targeted, RECEIPT does convey the overarching message that Europe is larger than its geographical extent, and also that climate impacts originating far outside its geographical borders challenge European long-term resilience. It conveys the need to invest in policy coherence across multiple domains and appreciate the notion that climate change is not a domain but an all-encompassing driver for socio-economic change. It always has been and always will be. Action is required.
The first was the elaboration of the concept of “physical climate storylines”. The project team developed protocols for the construction of climate storylines, engagement rules to connect them to real world problems, visualization techniques, and principles to perturb storylines to “virtual” counterfactual conditions. We documented several steps in the scientific literature and evolved the knowledge on the power and limitations of the storyline approach, the ways to connect multiple disciplines, the ethical considerations of inevitable subjective assumptions on conditions, actors, and metrics.
The second pillar was the compilation of more than a dozen sector-oriented storylines. We contacted potential stakeholders that provided the justification of selected events, we connected impact cascades and gave information on responses and policies that could be explored. The project team has set-up multiple model frameworks connecting physical, mathematical, and socio-economic process representations. Early career scientists were sent to partner institutes to cross disciplinary bridges, and quite a few multi-disciplinary teams jointly conceived scientific publications, web-based visualizations, and policy-oriented factsheets to document these practical implementations of the conceptual approach.
The third pillar addresses European policy making, by formulating recommendations in policy briefs and public conferences. The risk assessment conducted using the storyline approach represents an evolutionary advancement in the theoretical underpinnings and practice of assessing the implications of climate related hazards and risks. Building resilience to complex and interconnected risks is crucial for EU prosperity and cohesion. Navigating future protracted and overlapping crises requires grasping interconnected causes and embracing a comprehensive approach to climate risks. Climate storylines delve into alternative ways that past climate extremes could have unfolded. By combining the robustness of forensic risk diagnostics with foresight techniques, storytelling climate risks enhance advanced risk anticipation and the efficacy of stress tests. Collaboratively designed and standardized storylines of climate risks, developed in partnership with risk modelers, public authorities, and regulators, can significantly enhance climate intelligence to drive transformative change.
Despite the inherent need to embark on a limited subset of stories being told and policy perspectives being targeted, RECEIPT does convey the overarching message that Europe is larger than its geographical extent, and also that climate impacts originating far outside its geographical borders challenge European long-term resilience. It conveys the need to invest in policy coherence across multiple domains and appreciate the notion that climate change is not a domain but an all-encompassing driver for socio-economic change. It always has been and always will be. Action is required.
The application of the climate storyline approach and the development of first storylines is a learning experience resulting in a guiding practice towards the understanding of cross-border climate change manifestations in climate and human systems. New model chains and adjusted model formulations have ben tailored to sector-specific topics, including agricultural trade, insurance and risk from (tropical) cyclones.
The project has resulted in more than 70 influential papers, including in high level journals (Zappa et al., 2021, Ercin et al., 2021, Falkendal et al., 2021, (Shepherd & Lloyd, 2021), Sillman et al, 2022, Kotz et al, 2022). Further on, the project has contributed to the UNDRR Global Assessment Report (GAR 2022) and the INFORM Risk reports and Climate risk Index. The work is relevant for IPCC activities, citations in upcoming IPCC reports are expected.
RECEIPT, together with the Horizon 2020 project CASCADES have co-organized the conference Cross-border climate impacts and systemic risks in Europe and beyond during 16-18 October 2023, in Potsdam, Germany. The conference brought together ~130 scientists that work on approaches to better understand and respond/adapt to complex and cross-border climate impacts and risks.
The project has resulted in more than 70 influential papers, including in high level journals (Zappa et al., 2021, Ercin et al., 2021, Falkendal et al., 2021, (Shepherd & Lloyd, 2021), Sillman et al, 2022, Kotz et al, 2022). Further on, the project has contributed to the UNDRR Global Assessment Report (GAR 2022) and the INFORM Risk reports and Climate risk Index. The work is relevant for IPCC activities, citations in upcoming IPCC reports are expected.
RECEIPT, together with the Horizon 2020 project CASCADES have co-organized the conference Cross-border climate impacts and systemic risks in Europe and beyond during 16-18 October 2023, in Potsdam, Germany. The conference brought together ~130 scientists that work on approaches to better understand and respond/adapt to complex and cross-border climate impacts and risks.