Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes

Livrables

Web site online and social network profiles
Training material from both schools available on the web
Updates: YouTube channel videocapsules; website/blogs
Final videos and brochure
Marketing materials: video capsules, brochure

Report on MJO modelling as an activation multiplicative process
Report on the identification of coherent structures in sub-seasonal large-scale phenomena
Report on sources of predictability for the flow features in sub-seasonal forecasts

Report on sources of predictability for the flow features in subseasonal forecasts

Potential inputs for policy feedback

Report on potential inputs for policy feedback

Report on characteristics of RWPs in Southern Hemisphere
Career Development Plans

Career Development Plans (CDPs)

Report on the predictability of rainfall from SSS
Report on the predictability of European temperature and precipitation from analogue SWG
Report on the performance of the algorithm for computing the exceedance probabilities for either hurricanes of windstorms
Report on double/joint doctorate degrees

Report on doublejoint doctorate degrees

Report on the role of RWPs in prediction skill in SH extra-tropics

Report on the role of RWPs in prediction skill in SH extratropics

Report on the identification of large scale weather patterns that lead to severe temperature condition and on their predictability
Final year review of CDPs
Report on response of extreme weather for three levels of stabilized global warming and reponse to internal modes of climate variability
Report on correlation between SSS and extreme precipitation events
Report on which hazardous meteorological quantities in a spatial mode analysis possess the strongest correlations with ENSO phases
Report on the statistics of MJO events and their predictability
Supervising Guidelines
Report on quantification of the cascade effect including visualization in maps
Report on the performance of the analogue SGW and quantitative comparison with other prediction approaches
Report on the application of multilayer networks to predict sub-seasonal climate regime changes
Report on the travelling coherent structures associated to the MJO
Report on response of extreme weather events in the abrupt 4xCO2 baseline experiment of CMIP6 and model uncertainties
Report on verification of the atmospheric flow features in sub-seasonal forecasts

Report on verification of the atmospheric flow features in subseasonal forecasts

Report on the clustering properties of extreme cyclonic events
Communication Plan
Report on weather patterns predictability at sub-seasonal time scale

Report on weather patterns predictability at subseasonal time scale

Report on statistical analysis of sequences of weather patterns
Report on the forecast of regionally resolved time accumulated damaging events during ENSO phases and map representation

Software to evaluate predictive skill of analogue SWG and compare with ECMWF forecasts
Software to evaluate prediction of climate regime changes

Publications

ENSO and SAM influence on the generation of long episodes of Rossby Wave Packets during Southern Hemisphere Summer

Auteurs: Iago Perez; Marcelo Barreiro; Cristina Masoller
Publié dans: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Numéro 11, 2021
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-877

Fast and effective pseudo transfer entropy for bivariate data-driven causal inference.

Auteurs: Riccardo Silini; Cristina Masoller
Publié dans: Scientific Reports, Numéro 4, 2021, ISSN 2045-2322
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-87818-3

Ensemble forecast of an index of the Madden–JulianOscillation using a stochastic weather generatorbased on circulation analogs

Auteurs: Meriem Krouma1,2, Riccardo Silini3, and Pascal Yiou2
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, 2023, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-273-2023

Study of interaction and complete merging of binary cyclones using complex networks

Auteurs: Shraddha Gupta ; Vishnu R. Unni ; Rewanth Ravindran ; Praveen Kasthuri ; Norbert Marwan ; Jürgen Kurths ; R. I. Sujith
Publié dans: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2023, ISSN 1089-7682
Éditeur: AIP Publishing
DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.688613

Outlier mining in high-dimensional data using theJensen–Shannon divergence and graph structure analysis

Auteurs: Alex S O Toledo1,2, Riccardo Silini1, Laura C Carpi3,4 and Cristina Masoller1,∗
Publié dans: Journal of Physics: Complexity, 2022, Page(s) 7, ISSN 2632-072X
Éditeur: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2632-072x/aca94a

Lagged Teleconnections of Climate Variables Identified via Complex Rotated Maximum Covariance Analysis

Auteurs: Rieger, Niclas; Corral, Álvaro; Turiel, Antonio; Olmedo, Estrella
Publié dans: Journal of Climate, 2021, Page(s) 24, ISSN 0894-8755
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0244.1

Improving the prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation of the ECMWF model by post-processing

Auteurs: Riccardo Silini, Sebastian Lerch, Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Holger Kantz, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2190-4979
Éditeur: Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH
DOI: 10.5194/esd-13-1157-2022

Characteristic signatures of Northern Hemisphere blocking events in a Lagrangian flow network representation of the atmospheric circulation

Auteurs: Ehstand, Noemie CSIC ORCID; Donner, Reik V.; López, Cristóbal CSIC ORCID ; Hernández-García, Emilio CSIC ORCID
Publié dans: IFISC, 2021, ISSN 1054-1500
Éditeur: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0057409

Interconnection between the Indian and the East Asian summer monsoon: Spatial synchronization patterns of extreme rainfall events

Auteurs: Shraddha Gupta, Zhen Su, Niklas Boers, Jürgen Kurths, Norbert Marwan, Florian Pappenberger
Publié dans: Internaional Journal of Climatology, 2023, ISSN 1097-0088
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7861

Machine learning prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation

Auteurs: Riccardo Silini; Marcelo Barreiro; Cristina Masoller
Publié dans: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 4, Iss 1, Pp 1-7 (2021), Numéro 10, 2021, ISSN 2397-3722
Éditeur: Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00214-6

Complex network approach for detecting tropical cyclones

Auteurs: Shraddha Gupta, Niklas Boers, Florian Pappenberger & Jürgen Kurths
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2021, ISSN 0930-7575
Éditeur: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05871-0

Assessment of stochastic weather forecast of precipitation nearEuropean cities, based on analogs of circulation

Auteurs: Meriem Krouma1,2, Pascal Yiou2, Céline Déandreis1, and Soulivanh Thao2
Publié dans: Geoscientific Model Development, 2022, Page(s) 18, ISSN 1991-9603
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-4941-2022

Forecasting extreme precipitation in the central Mediterranean: Changes in predictors' strength with prediction lead time

Auteurs: Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Luca Furnari, Linus Magnusson, Alfonso Senatore, Giuseppe Mendicino, Florian Pappenberger, Jörg Matschullat
Publié dans: Meteorological Applications, 2022, ISSN 1469-8080
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/met.2101

Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: Spatiotemporal characteristics and connection to large-scale atmospheric flow patterns

Auteurs: Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Pedro Herrera-Lormendez, Linus Magnusson, Florian Pappenberger, Jörg Matschullat
Publié dans: International Journal of Climatology, 2020, ISSN 1097-0088
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6985

Projected changes in synoptic circulations over Europe and their implications for summer precipitation: A CMIP6 perspective

Auteurs: Pedro Herrera-Lormendez, Amal John, Hervé Douville, Jörg Matschullat
Publié dans: International Journal of Climatology, 2023, ISSN 1097-0088
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/joc.8033

Quantifying CMIP6 model uncertainties in extreme precipitation projections

Auteurs: Amal John a c, Hervé Douville a, Aurélien Ribes a, Pascal Yiou b
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Extremes, 2022, ISSN 2212-0947
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100435

Benchmarking prediction skill in binary El Niño forecasts

Auteurs: Xinjia Hu, Jan Eichner, Eberhard Faust & Holger Kantz
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Éditeur: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05950-2

What do large-scale patterns teach us about extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean at medium- and extended-range forecasts?

Auteurs: Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Linus Magnusson, Florian Pappenberger, Jörg Matschullat
Publié dans: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2021, Page(s) 16, ISSN 1477-870X
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4236

Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6

Auteurs: Pedro Herrera-Lormendez, Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Hervé Douville, Andreas Hoy, Jörg Matschullat
Publié dans: International Journal of Climatology, 2021, ISSN 1097-0088
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7481

European heatwaves: Link to large-scale circulation patterns and intraseasonal drivers

Auteurs: Emmanuel Rouges, Laura Ferranti, Holger Kantz, Florian Pappenberger
Publié dans: International Journal of Climatology, 2023, ISSN 1097-0088
Éditeur: Wiley
DOI: 10.1002/joc.8024

Assessing causal dependencies in climatic indices

Auteurs: Riccardo Silini, Giulio Tirabassi, Marcelo Barreiro, Laura Ferranti & Cristina Masoller
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Éditeur: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06562-0

Combined impact of ENSO and Antarctic Oscillation on austral spring precipitation in Southeastern South America (SESA)

Auteurs: Xinjia Hu, Jan Eichner, Daoyi Gong, Marcelo Barreiro & Holger Kantz
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 0930-7575
Éditeur: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06592-8

Perspectives on the importance of complex systems in understanding our climate and climate change—The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021

Auteurs: Shraddha Gupta ; Nikolaos Mastrantonas ; Cristina Masoller ; Jürgen Kurths
Publié dans: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2021, ISSN 1089-7682
Éditeur: AIP Publishing
DOI: 10.1063/5.0090222

Fast adjustment versus slow SST-mediated response of daily precipitation statistics to abrupt 4xCO2

Auteurs: Hervé Douville & A. John
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2020, ISSN 1432-0894
Éditeur: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05522-w

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