Periodic Reporting for period 4 - Nunataryuk (Permafrost thaw and the changing arctic coast: science for socio-economic adaptation)
Reporting period: 2022-05-01 to 2023-10-31
On the global level, the release of organic carbon previously frozen in permafrost and its transformation into greenhouse gases may push the global climate warming above the 1.5 °C targeted in the COP21 Paris Agreement. Yet, these processes are still not accounted for in global climate and Earth System Models informing the IPCC process.
On the local level, Arctic residents are directly impacted by rapidly changing conditions at the coast. Yet, all of these issues have so far been considered in isolation and have not been addressed in an integrated research framework.
The pressing challenge is therefore to quantify and project organic matter, sediment and contaminant fluxes from thawing coastal and subsea permafrost and to accurately assess the implications of permafrost thaw for the indigenous populations, the local environment as well as the global climate.
For example, for the first time we now know how many people live in settlements built on permafrost. We have more precise predictions on when we can expect these settlements to be permafrost free and understanding on the stability of coastal infrastructure in a changing climate with thawing permafrost. We have a good idea of the resources and tools the affected communities currently possess and more clear apprehension on what type of adaptation measures are needed.
Further, we have been able to quantify more precisely the lateral fluxes from permafrost, the methane release fluxes from sub-sea permafrost and the release of Anthrax from permafrost soil. We have, for the first time, been able to integrate coastal erosion and sub-sea components to the Earth System Models providing thus a critically needed information on how the global climate might evolve with permafrost thaw counted in.
All results have been published in open-access peer-reviewed publications that are available in our Nunataryuk community in the Zenodo repository at https://zenodo.org/
Furthermore, all project results have been compiled into the first ever Arctic Permafrost Atlas that is a key outcome of the Nunataryuk project. Edited by GRID-Arendal together with the Nunataryuk consortium, it presents state-of-the-art knowledge about permafrost and the impacts of permafrost thaw on human communities in the Arctic in a highly visual form.
The atlas provides a unique collection of knowledge for the affected communities, institutes all over the world, for the global policy community as well as the general public, providing science-based information in easily understandable jargon free format.
The Atlas is freely available online at https://nunataryuk.org/news/atlas
On the local level, Nunataryuk has examined the health consequences of permafrost thaw by quantifying fluxes of contaminants and epidemiological impacts on humans. The One Health approach, a holistic framework that considers the connections between the environment, plant, animal and human health, has been used for evaluating health risks for wild-life and humans living in the three project geographical focal areas. The project further used a risk evaluation methodology developed together with Arctic coastal communities to provide information on infrastructure vulnerability and failure and associated risks to health and the local economy. This integrated approach is unique and is one of the main legacies of the project.
Nunataryuk applied its novel trans-disciplinary research chain from co-design to the on-the- ground field research and community engagement to create policy relevant indicators. It presented an actionable risk framework to community decision-makers, taking this state-of-the-art methodology to the next level of integration between physical science and socio-economic understanding. This facilitates tangible action to implement the UN SDG13 combating climate change and its impacts and puts forward permafrost thaw cost estimates that are directly relevant for the implementation of the Paris Agreement.