Description du projet
Des prévisions météorologiques fiables dans l’Arctique
L’impact du changement climatique sur l’Arctique est considérable, ce qui exige des capacités de prévision fiables pour les parties intéressées. Le projet APPLICATE, financé par l’UE, entend développer un cadre inclusif qui repose sur des mesures et des diagnostics avancés pour observer et évaluer les modèles météorologiques et climatiques. Ce projet facilitera la collaboration parmi les scientifiques, les institutions de recherche, les centres de prévision opérationnels, mais aussi les experts en prévisions météorologiques et climatiques, et leurs diffuseurs. APPLICATE s’appuiera sur ce cadre pour évaluer les performances des modèles existants et mesurer les avancées du projet. Il se penchera sur l’amélioration substantielle des modèles, en se concentrant sur les facteurs connus pour influencer les prévisions météorologiques et climatiques, tels que la couche limite atmosphérique (y compris les nuages), le couplage atmosphère-glace de mer-océan et les transports océaniques.
Objectif
Arctic climate change increases the need of a growing number of stakeholders for trustworthy weather and climate predictions, both within the Arctic and beyond. APPLICATE will address this challenge and develop enhanced predictive capacity by bringing together scientists from academia, research institutions and operational prediction centres, including experts in weather and climate prediction and forecast dissemination. APPLICATE will develop a comprehensive framework for observationally constraining and assessing weather and climate models using advanced metrics and diagnostics. This framework will be used to establish the performance of existing models and measure the progress made within the project. APPLICATE will make significant model improvements, focusing on aspects that are known to play pivotal roles in both weather and climate prediction, namely: the atmospheric boundary layer including clouds; sea ice; snow; atmosphere-sea ice-ocean coupling; and oceanic transports. In addition to model developments, APPLICATE will enhance predictive capacity by contributing to the design of the future Arctic observing system and through improved forecast initialization techniques. The impact of Arctic climate change on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere through atmospheric and oceanic linkages will be determined by a comprehensive set of novel multi-model numerical experiments using both coupled and uncoupled ocean and atmosphere models. APPLICATE will develop strong user-engagement and dissemination activities, including pro-active engagement of end-users and the exploitation of modern methods for communication and dissemination. Knowledge-transfer will also benefit from the direct engagement of operational prediction centres in APPLICATE. The educational component of APPLICATE will be developed and implemented in collaboration with the Association of Early Career Polar Scientists (APECS).
Champ scientifique
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RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinateur
27570 Bremerhaven
Allemagne