The Violence Early-Warning System: Building a Scientific Foundation for Conflict Forecasting

Moving from Reaction to Action - Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel: A synthesis report from the Sahel Predictive Analytics project in support of the United Nations Integrated Strategy for the Sahel (Report published by the United Nations Office of the Special Coordinator for Development in the Sahel (OSCDS) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) - Forthcoming

Author(s): Jana Birner, Julia Blocher, Lucas Destrijcker, Benjamin Fischer, Stephanie Gleixner, Christoph Gornott, Håvard Hegre, Lennart Jansen, Bryan Jones, Alexander Kjærum, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Sophie von Loeben, Nicole Manger, Thomas Mayer, Julia Tomalka, Paola Vesco, Kira Vinke, Stefanie Wesch, Antonia Zvolsky
Published in: 2022
Publisher: UN

What’s missing? The effect of missing data and imputation techniques on predictive performance in forecasting civil war violence (Working Paper)

Author(s): David Randahl
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, July 2018

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2018
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Disaggregated analysis of internal and cross-border mobility using a prediction framework

Author(s): Kristina Petrova, Maxine Leis
Published in: 2022
Publisher: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, October 2018

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2018
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: October 2021

Author(s): The ViEWS Team
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, June 2018

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2018
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, June 2020

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

How political institutions contribute to forecasting organized political violence

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Hannah Frank
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, August 2020

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, March 2020

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, February 2020

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Policy Paper: COVID-19, Conflict, and Risks in the Arab Region: The Need to End Hostilities and Invest in Peace

Author(s): Havard Hegre et al.
Published in: 2020
Publisher: ESCWA & PRIO

ViEWS monthly forecasts, November 2019

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Move It or Lose It: Introducing Pseudo-Earth Mover Divergence as a Context-Sensitive Metric for Evaluating and Improving Forecasting and Prediction Systems (Paper presented at the 2019 Barcelona GSE Summer Forum, Workshop on Forecasting Political and Economic Crisis: Social Science Meets Machine Learning)

Author(s): Kevin Greene, Håvard Hegre, Frederick Hoyles, Michael Colaresi
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Barcelona School of Economics (BSE)

ViEWS monthly forecasts, March 2019

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Early warning and predictive analytic systems in conflict and humanitarian contexts: Dispatches from the front

Author(s): Tim Lynam, Mollie Zapata, Håvard Hegre, Clayton Besaw, Curtis Bell
Published in: 2022
Publisher: Routledge

Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel (Report for the UNHCR)

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Remco Hansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Paola Vesco, Malika Rakhmankulova
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: November 2021

Author(s): The ViEWS Team
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, November 2018

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2018
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, September 2018

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2018
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Predicting Armed Conflict Using Protest Data

Author(s): Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Håvard Hegre, Maxine Leis
Published in: 2022
Publisher: Uppsala University

A Climate of War or Peace? The Effect of Droughts on Conflict Dynamics (Paper presented at the virtual ISA Annual Convention 2021)

Author(s): Paola Vesco
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: September 2021

Author(s): The ViEWS Team
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, February 2019

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Inexorable Force or Dying Wave?: Long term trends of democratization and the third wave of autocratization

Author(s): David Randahl
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Uppsala University

Inference with extremes: Accounting for Extreme Values in Count Regression Models

Author(s): David Randahl, Johan Vegelius
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Uppsala University

Rally, Rage, or Right-wing politics?

Author(s): David Randahl
Published in: 2018
Publisher: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, January 2019

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Forecasting fatalities

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Forogh Akbari, Mihai Croicu, James Dale, Tim Gasste, Remco Jansen, Peder Landsverk, Maxine Leis, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Hannes Mueller, Malika Rakhmankulova, David Randahl, Christopher Rauh, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Paola Vesco
Published in: 2022
Publisher: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, April 2020

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: July 2021

Author(s): The ViEWS Team
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, June 2019

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, James Dale, Mihai Croicu, David Randahl, Paola Vesco
Published in: 2022
Publisher: Uppsala University

Estimating a Zero and Extreme Value Inflated Regression Model

Author(s): Johan Vegelius, David Randahl
Published in: Issue Digital Comprehensive Summaries of Uppsala Dissertations from the Faculty of Social Sciences 196, 2022
Publisher: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, September 2019

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Too hot to handle? Climate shocks, societal vulnerability and conflict forecasting (Paper presented at the ISA Annual Convention 2022, Nashville,Tennessee)

Author(s): Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Ole Magnus Theisen
Published in: 2022
Publisher: Uppsala University

Trends in the severity of wars: a mixed-level analysis

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, David Randahl, Mihai Croicu
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, September 2020

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, October 2020

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: April 2021

Author(s): The ViEWS Team
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Verden er blitt mere fredelig - vil denne trenden fortsette? [The World has become more Peaceful - Will this Trend Continue?]

Author(s): Håvard Hegre
Published in: Kungl. vetenskapssocietetens årbok, 2018
Publisher: Kungliga vetenskapssocieteten

Freds- og konfliktforskning og den fredsbevarende virkningen av demokrati og økonomiske nettverk [Peace and Conflict Research and the pacifying Effect of Democracy and Economic Networks]

Author(s): Håvard Hegre
Published in: Årbok for Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi, 2018
Publisher: Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi

Introducing the UCDP-Candidate Events Dataset and the ViEWS Outcomes dataset. Monthly updated organized violence data in the form of events data as well as aggregated to the country-month and PRIO-GRID-month level

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck, Stina Högbladh
Published in: 2018
Publisher: Uppsala University

A Fast Spatial Multiple Imputation Procedure for Imprecise Armed Conflict Events

Author(s): Mihai Croicu, Håvard Hegre
Published in: 2018
Publisher: Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: May 2021

Author(s): The ViEWS Team
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, April 2019

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, May 2019

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Forecasting armed conflict in the Sahel: Forecasts for November 2021–October 2024

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Paola Vesco, Remco Jansen, Malika Rakhmankulova
Published in: 2022
Publisher: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts: August 2020

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, July 2019

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: June 2021

Author(s): The ViEWS Team
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: August 2021

Author(s): The ViEWS Team
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Understanding the potential linkages between climate change and conflict in the Arab region

Author(s): Ole Magnus Theisen, Håvard Hegre, Halvard Buhaug, Stefan Döring, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, Ida Rudolfsen, Paola Vesco, Joaquin Salido Marcos, Yara Acaf, Pattile Nahabedian, Lubna Ismail
Published in: 2021
Publisher: United Nations publication, ESCWA

ViEWS monthly forecasts, December 2019

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: February 2021

Author(s): The ViEWS Team
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, October 2019

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, August 2019

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2019
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: January 2021

Author(s): The ViEWS Team
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, August 2018

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2018
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, July 2020

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, January 2020

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

Unpacking Sensitivity Bias in Vote Buying: Exploratory Analyses of a ‘Failed’ List Experiment (Presented at the International Studies Association’s 2022 Annual Convention)

Author(s): Sophia Hatz, Hanne Fjelde, David Randahl
Published in: 2022
Publisher: Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, December 2018

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2018
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: December 2021

Author(s): The ViEWS Team
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Department of Peace and Con ict Research, Uppsala University

A Review and Comparison of Conflict Early Warning Systems

Author(s): Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Tim Gåsste, Håvard Hegre
Published in: 2022
Publisher: Uppsala University

The `conflict trap' reduces economic growth in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Author(s): Gilmore, Elisabeth, Håvard Hegre, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Uppsala University

The Risk Monitor: March 2021

Author(s): The ViEWS Team
Published in: 2021
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

ViEWS monthly forecasts, May 2020

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen
Published in: 2020
Publisher: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University

A Conditional Model of Local Income Shock and Civil Conflict

Author(s): Halvard Buhaug, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Nina von Uexkull
Published in: The Journal of Politics, Issue 83/1, 2021, Page(s) 354-366, ISSN 0022-3816
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1086/709671

Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production

Author(s): Paola Vesco, Matija Kovacic, Malcolm Mistry, Mihai Croicu
Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 58/1, 2021, Page(s) 98-113, ISSN 0022-3433
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343320971020

Lessons from an Escalation Prediction Competition. International Interactions

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi
Published in: International Interactions, Issue 48(x), 2022, Page(s) 1-34, ISSN 1547-7444
Publisher: Taylor & Franis Online
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2070745

Which Institutions Matter? Re-Considering the Democratic Civil Peace*

Author(s): Hanne Fjelde, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Published in: International Studies Quarterly, Issue 65/1, 2020, Page(s) 223-237, ISSN 0020-8833
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaa076

Natural resources and conflict: A meta-analysis of the empirical literature

Author(s): Paola Vesco, Shouro Dasgupta, Enrica De Cian, Carlo Carraro
Published in: Ecological Economics, Issue 172, 2020, Page(s) 106633, ISSN 0921-8009
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106633

Measuring the intensity of conflicts in conservation

Author(s): Cusack, Jeremy J., Tom Bradfer-Lawrence, Zachary Baynham-Herd, Sofia Castelló y Tickell, Isla Duporge, Håvard Hegre, Lara Moreno Zárate, Vincent Naude, Sahil Nijhawan, John Wilson, Dario Gerardo Zambrano Cortes, Nils Bunnefeld
Published in: Conservation Letters (e12783), Issue Volume14, Issue3, 2021, ISSN 1755-263X
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/conl.12783

External support in armed conflicts: Introducing the UCDP external support dataset (ESD), 1975–2017

Author(s): V. Meier, N. Karlén, T. Pettersson, Mihai Croicu
Published in: Journal of Peace Research, 2022, ISSN 0022-3433
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/00223433221079864

Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck, Stina Högbladh
Published in: Research & Politics, Issue 7/3, 2020, Page(s) 205316802093525, ISSN 2053-1680
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/2053168020935257

Reporting of non-fatal conflict events

Author(s): Mihai Croicu, Kristine Eck
Published in: International Interactions, Issue 48:3, 2022, Page(s) 450-470, ISSN 0305-0629
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2044325

Lessons from a conflict escalation prediction competition (Special issue)

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi
Published in: International Interactions, Issue Special issue 48(5), 2022, ISSN 1547-7444
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Online

Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Kristina Petrova, Nina von Uexkull
Published in: Sustainability, Issue 12/20, 2020, Page(s) 8729, ISSN 2071-1050
Publisher: MDPI Open Access Publishing
DOI: 10.3390/su12208729

Predicting Escalating and De-Escalating Violence in Africa Using Markov Models

Author(s): David Randahl, Johan Vegelius
Published in: International Interactions, 2022, ISSN 1547-7444
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Online
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2049772

ViEWS 2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Curtis Bell, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Frederick Hoyles, Remco Jansen, Maxine Ria Leis, Angelica Lindqvist-McGowan, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Paola Vesco
Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 58/3, 2021, Page(s) 599-611, ISSN 0022-3433
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343320962157

Protection Through Presence: UN Peacekeeping and the Costs of Targeting Civilians

Author(s): Hanne Fjelde, Lisa Hultman, Desirée Nilsson
Published in: International Organization, Issue 73/1, 2019, Page(s) 103-131, ISSN 0020-8183
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0020818318000346

Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Ranveig Flaten Ræder
Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 54/2, 2017, Page(s) 243-261, ISSN 0022-3433
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343316684917

Evaluating the Conflict-Reducing Effect of UN Peacekeeping Operations

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Published in: The Journal of Politics, Issue 81/1, 2019, Page(s) 215-232, ISSN 0022-3816
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1086/700203

Introduction

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Nils W Metternich, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Julian Wucherpfennig
Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 54/2, 2017, Page(s) 113-124, ISSN 0022-3433
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343317691330

Civil Society and the Democratic Peace

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Michael Bernhard, Jan Teorell
Published in: Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2019, Page(s) 002200271985062, ISSN 0022-0027
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022002719850620

Fraud, grievances, and post-election protests in competitive authoritarian regimes

Author(s): Espen Geelmuyden Rød
Published in: Electoral Studies, Issue 58, 2019, Page(s) 12-20, ISSN 0261-3794
Publisher: Pergamon Press Ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2019.01.003

ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Marie Allansson, Matthias Basedau, Michael Colaresi, Mihai Croicu, Hanne Fjelde, Frederick Hoyles, Lisa Hultman, Stina Högbladh, Remco Jansen, Naima Mouhleb, Sayyed Auwn Muhammad, Desirée Nilsson, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Kristina Petrova, David Randahl, Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Gerald Schneider, Nina von Uexkull, Jonas Vestby
Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 56/2, 2018, Page(s) 155-174, ISSN 0022-3433
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343319823860

The oracle or the crowd? Experts versus the stock market in forecasting ceasefire success in the Levant

Author(s): Gerald Schneider, Maya Hadar, Naomi Bosler
Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 54/2, 2017, Page(s) 231-242, ISSN 0022-3433
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343316683437

Do the robot

Author(s): Michael Colaresi, Zuhaib Mahmood
Published in: Journal of Peace Research, Issue 54/2, 2017, Page(s) 193-214, ISSN 0022-3433
Publisher: SAGE Publications
DOI: 10.1177/0022343316682065

The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis

Author(s): Espen Geelmuyden Rød, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Håvard Hegre
Published in: Public Choice, 2019, ISSN 0048-5829
Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s11127-019-00742-z

Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality

Author(s): Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Peder Landsverk
Published in: International Studies Quarterly, 2021, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 0020-8833
Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1093/isq/sqaa094

United They Stand: Findings from an Escalation Prediction Competition'. International Interactions

Author(s): Paola Vesco, Håvard Hegre, Michael Colaresi, Remco Bastiaan Jansen, Adeline Lo, Gregor Reisch Nils B. Weidmann
Published in: International Interactions, Issue Online, 2022, Page(s) 1-38, ISSN 1547-7444
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Online
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2029856

Employing Local Peacekeeping Data to Forecast Changes in Violence

Author(s): Lisa Hultman, Maxine Leis, Desirée Nilsson
Published in: International Interactions, 2022, ISSN 1547-7444
Publisher: Taylor & Francis Online
DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2055010

Who knows what tomorrow will bring? Four papers on the prediction of contentious politics.

Author(s): David Randahl
Published in: Doctoral Thesis/Report Department of Peace and Conflict Research 128, 2022, ISBN 978-91-506-2948-4
Publisher: Uppsala University

The Internet and Political Protest in Autocracies

Author(s): Nils B. Weidmann, Espen Geelmuyden Rød
Published in: Oxford Studies in Digital Politics, 2019
Publisher: Oxford University Press

Climate and conflict

Author(s): Paola Vesco, Halvard Buhaug
Published in: Routledge Handbook of Peace, Security and Development, 2020, Page(s) 105-120, ISBN 9781351172202
Publisher: Routledge

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