Periodic Report Summary 3 - NEUJOBS (Employment 2025: How will multiple transitions affect the European labour market)
Project Context and Objectives:
Overall, the aim of the project is to analyse future possible developments of the European labour market(s) under the main assumption that European societies are now facing or preparing to face four main transitions, which will concern specific sectors of the economy and certain groups of the labour force. These natural and societal megatrends will reshape the global conditions for Europe, posing numerous challenges to societies and policy-makers in the area of labour. ‘Societal megatrends’ take the form of demographic transition, the ongoing shifts in the economic and political centres of gravity worldwide, the growing use of information and communication technologies and the related new forms of knowledge-sharing. By ‘natural megatrends’, we mean the increasing volatility of climate change, the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources and rising challenges to resource security, all of which can be expected to have far-reaching implications for production and consumption patterns of European societies Since expectations for the severity of the changes vary, we distinguish between ‘friendly’ and ‘tough’ variants of each megatrend in two distinct time frames: by 2025 and by 2050.
Specifically, the project had the following objectives:
o Conceptualize pathways for impact of the socio-ecological transition on employment
o Produce integrated scenarios of economic, employment and skills dynamics in Europe – both mainstream and out-of-the-box – and assess their policy implications
o Produce a behavioural micro-simulation model for the EU level, to enable policy makers to understand the need for and the potential scope for policies targeted at future socioeconomic development affecting labour markets. The most important subjects to be addressed include impact of retirement schemes, tax-benefit systems, skill provision and employability on the labour market.
o Assess interaction between key factors influencing employment developments over the next 15 years and beyond. Assess changes necessary in education and training policies and in the welfare state to support successful employment adjustment to the transition
o Identify key factors driving employment in those sectors that are likely to be heavily influenced by the socio-ecological transition and policies to support employment maximization in these sectors
o Identify policies to maximize employment potential of groups representing crucial labour force reservoirs
o Involve social partners and the public in all aspects of the research both to generate knowledge and disseminate it widely
Project Results:
NEUJOBS :
- provided a conceptualisation of the socio-ecological transition providing the basis for the other work-packages (WP1).
- considered in detail the main drivers for change together with policies. Among drivers, WP2 provided an analysis of discourse – cultural developments, WP3 of changes in the organisation of production and in the employment structure, WP4 of educational needs. Moving to the policy side,WP5 assessed the impact of changes in the family structures on the demand and supply of labour and which interventions are necessary to facilitate employment in times of transition; WP6 took into account the effect of labour relations and social cohesion and WP7 the issue of financing the transition in an era of budget constraint. In WP8 the regional dimension was studied in depth also in relation to migration flows.
- modelled economic and employment development on the basis of the inputs provided in the previous work-packages from a macro as well as micro perspective.
- examined possible trends in key sector of the economy in light of the transition processes: energy (WP11), health care and goods / services for the ageing population (WP12), care services (WP13) housing (WP14) and transport (WP15).
- focused on impact groups, namely those vital for employment growth in the EU: women (WP16), elderly (WP17), immigrants (WP18) and Roma (WP19).
Potential Impact:
As main project result, NEUJOBS aimed at defining the shape of employment over the next 15 years and longer-term trends. The shape of employment wasframed by
- The volume of employment / labour force and their structural characteristics (sectoral, skills etc)
- Quality / job content and organization of work / labour market institutions
The principal, but not exclusive lens, through which we looked at the issue, was the concept of socio-ecological transition. The research results were also be based on other determinants (exogenous and endogenous) such as;
- Global and European macroeconomic developments
- Social (including demographic) and technological change
- Economic, social and environmental policies at the EU / national level
- Fiscal constraints and the fiscal aftermath of the global crisis
The analysis of future labour market developments had two components, a qualitative analysis – the narrative - and a quantitative analysis, the projections produced in WP9 and 10.
In the last phases NEUJOBS
- Finalized and upgraded the models in order to produce comprehensive projections of economic and employment developments;
- Concluded the research on all the drivers on specific industries and population groups such as energy, health care and goods / services for the ageing population, child care services, housing and transport, women, elderly, immigrants and Roma.
- Reached out the NEUJOBS community via the organization of different types of national/European events and publications
- Published two volumes including the outcomes of all research WPs: Future of Labour Vol.1 &Vol.2
List of Websites:
www.neujobs.eu
Overall, the aim of the project is to analyse future possible developments of the European labour market(s) under the main assumption that European societies are now facing or preparing to face four main transitions, which will concern specific sectors of the economy and certain groups of the labour force. These natural and societal megatrends will reshape the global conditions for Europe, posing numerous challenges to societies and policy-makers in the area of labour. ‘Societal megatrends’ take the form of demographic transition, the ongoing shifts in the economic and political centres of gravity worldwide, the growing use of information and communication technologies and the related new forms of knowledge-sharing. By ‘natural megatrends’, we mean the increasing volatility of climate change, the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources and rising challenges to resource security, all of which can be expected to have far-reaching implications for production and consumption patterns of European societies Since expectations for the severity of the changes vary, we distinguish between ‘friendly’ and ‘tough’ variants of each megatrend in two distinct time frames: by 2025 and by 2050.
Specifically, the project had the following objectives:
o Conceptualize pathways for impact of the socio-ecological transition on employment
o Produce integrated scenarios of economic, employment and skills dynamics in Europe – both mainstream and out-of-the-box – and assess their policy implications
o Produce a behavioural micro-simulation model for the EU level, to enable policy makers to understand the need for and the potential scope for policies targeted at future socioeconomic development affecting labour markets. The most important subjects to be addressed include impact of retirement schemes, tax-benefit systems, skill provision and employability on the labour market.
o Assess interaction between key factors influencing employment developments over the next 15 years and beyond. Assess changes necessary in education and training policies and in the welfare state to support successful employment adjustment to the transition
o Identify key factors driving employment in those sectors that are likely to be heavily influenced by the socio-ecological transition and policies to support employment maximization in these sectors
o Identify policies to maximize employment potential of groups representing crucial labour force reservoirs
o Involve social partners and the public in all aspects of the research both to generate knowledge and disseminate it widely
Project Results:
NEUJOBS :
- provided a conceptualisation of the socio-ecological transition providing the basis for the other work-packages (WP1).
- considered in detail the main drivers for change together with policies. Among drivers, WP2 provided an analysis of discourse – cultural developments, WP3 of changes in the organisation of production and in the employment structure, WP4 of educational needs. Moving to the policy side,WP5 assessed the impact of changes in the family structures on the demand and supply of labour and which interventions are necessary to facilitate employment in times of transition; WP6 took into account the effect of labour relations and social cohesion and WP7 the issue of financing the transition in an era of budget constraint. In WP8 the regional dimension was studied in depth also in relation to migration flows.
- modelled economic and employment development on the basis of the inputs provided in the previous work-packages from a macro as well as micro perspective.
- examined possible trends in key sector of the economy in light of the transition processes: energy (WP11), health care and goods / services for the ageing population (WP12), care services (WP13) housing (WP14) and transport (WP15).
- focused on impact groups, namely those vital for employment growth in the EU: women (WP16), elderly (WP17), immigrants (WP18) and Roma (WP19).
Potential Impact:
As main project result, NEUJOBS aimed at defining the shape of employment over the next 15 years and longer-term trends. The shape of employment wasframed by
- The volume of employment / labour force and their structural characteristics (sectoral, skills etc)
- Quality / job content and organization of work / labour market institutions
The principal, but not exclusive lens, through which we looked at the issue, was the concept of socio-ecological transition. The research results were also be based on other determinants (exogenous and endogenous) such as;
- Global and European macroeconomic developments
- Social (including demographic) and technological change
- Economic, social and environmental policies at the EU / national level
- Fiscal constraints and the fiscal aftermath of the global crisis
The analysis of future labour market developments had two components, a qualitative analysis – the narrative - and a quantitative analysis, the projections produced in WP9 and 10.
In the last phases NEUJOBS
- Finalized and upgraded the models in order to produce comprehensive projections of economic and employment developments;
- Concluded the research on all the drivers on specific industries and population groups such as energy, health care and goods / services for the ageing population, child care services, housing and transport, women, elderly, immigrants and Roma.
- Reached out the NEUJOBS community via the organization of different types of national/European events and publications
- Published two volumes including the outcomes of all research WPs: Future of Labour Vol.1 &Vol.2
List of Websites:
www.neujobs.eu