Periodic Reporting for period 1 - IAM COMPACT (Expanding Integrated Assessment Modelling: Comprehensive and Comprehensible Science for Sustainable, Co-Created Climate Action)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2022-09-01 al 2024-02-29
-Climate policies/pledges are not on track to meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals and international cooperation remains limited
-The modelling world has fallen short of its promise to include non-scientists/stakeholders, despite the need for wide societal support to underpin NDC design
-Non-high-income countries do not “own” their NDC commitments, as underpinning modelling is often outsourced to consultancies
-Modelling usually focuses on the supply-side, despite the need to transform demand and the high potential of behaviour changes
-IAMs are mostly designed for long-term horizons and are not equipped to study deep uncertainties, structural changes, extremes
-Climate action must be comprehensively assessed, including co-benefits across the broad sustainability spectrum
-A new interdisciplinary transitions research agenda is needed to integrate modelling with social sciences, to assess the feasibility and desirability of the transitions
-New mitigation and sustainability pathways must be quantified and assessed against realistic baselines
To support the assessment of global climate goals, progress, and feasibility space, and the design of the next round of NDCs and policy planning beyond 2030 for the EU, major emitters, and non-high-income countries, the IAM COMPACT objectives include:
O1. Supporting the assessment of global climate progress, needs, and feasibility, and the preparation of national policies for the post-2030 period, toward mid-century climate neutrality
O2. Placing climate action in a holistic sustainable development framework
O3. Enhancing the robustness of scientific outputs and incorporating social, political, behaviour, and innovation insights in models
O4. Co-creating policy-relevant modelling via an international policy response mechanism
O5. Establishing an integration process that co-produces science and policy prescriptions by adding layers of tools, models, methods, and bodies of knowledge
O6. Opening the ‘black box’ of scientific inputs, processes and outputs
O7. Engaging in the deep/extreme uncertainty space
O8. Boosting international cooperation, partnership, and capacity
-The modelling world has fallen short of its promise to include non-scientists/stakeholders, despite the need for wide societal support to underpin NDC design
-Non-high-income countries do not “own” their NDC commitments, as underpinning modelling is often outsourced to consultancies
-Modelling usually focuses on the supply-side, despite the need to transform demand and the high potential of behaviour changes
-IAMs are mostly designed for long-term horizons and are not equipped to study deep uncertainties, structural changes, extremes
-Climate action must be comprehensively assessed, including co-benefits across the broad sustainability spectrum
-A new interdisciplinary transitions research agenda is needed to integrate modelling with social sciences, to assess the feasibility and desirability of the transitions
-New mitigation and sustainability pathways must be quantified and assessed against realistic baselines
To support the assessment of global climate goals, progress, and feasibility space, and the design of the next round of NDCs and policy planning beyond 2030 for the EU, major emitters, and non-high-income countries, the IAM COMPACT objectives include:
O1. Supporting the assessment of global climate progress, needs, and feasibility, and the preparation of national policies for the post-2030 period, toward mid-century climate neutrality
O2. Placing climate action in a holistic sustainable development framework
O3. Enhancing the robustness of scientific outputs and incorporating social, political, behaviour, and innovation insights in models
O4. Co-creating policy-relevant modelling via an international policy response mechanism
O5. Establishing an integration process that co-produces science and policy prescriptions by adding layers of tools, models, methods, and bodies of knowledge
O6. Opening the ‘black box’ of scientific inputs, processes and outputs
O7. Engaging in the deep/extreme uncertainty space
O8. Boosting international cooperation, partnership, and capacity
(a) Listening
Policy Response Mechanism (PRM) established
Project database of 5,739 stakeholders (>500 academia, 500 business, 500 industry, 500 civil society, 250 modellers, 200 social scientists, 2000 policymakers, 50 non-high-income countries)
11 Policy Steering Groups (44 policymakers) to co-define PRM1 questions.
9 Core Working Groups (100 stakeholders) to co-design PRM1 scenarios.
2 policy briefs
(b) Exchanging
Open science and model interlinkage protocols, machine-actionable data management plan (Argos), and Zenodo community.
I2AM PARIS Upgrade: 51 models, 22 documentation videos, 1 tool for standardised outputs, 1 tool for model results validity/vetting, 2 new workspaces.
(c) Modelling
Policy catalogue, model coordination, data/policy harmonisation, and broad scenario protocols.
Global-level emissions and warming projections, regional mitigation analyses (EU, India, China, USA), sectoral and sub-national deep dives in Europe.
(d) Expanding
Open database & model inter-comparison on COVID-19 recovery packages.
Cutting-edge micro-simulation & macroeconomic modelling to understand distributional impacts.
IAMs stress-tested in extremes, alongside expert interviews.
Representation of behaviour change & social innovation, co-created quantitative narratives.
(e) Explaining
Several policy events, 22 videos, 10 infographics, 11 media articles, 13 newsletters/press releases, 26 papers, 17 conferences, 7 open datasets, 1 Special Issue, 2 policy briefs, submission of scenarios and 1 policy brief to the EU SAB on Climate Change.
Mapping of global drivers, barriers, and policies for sectoral decarbonisation.
Capacity development (workshops, courses, material) in Ethiopia, Sri Lanka, and Kenya.
Policy Response Mechanism (PRM) established
Project database of 5,739 stakeholders (>500 academia, 500 business, 500 industry, 500 civil society, 250 modellers, 200 social scientists, 2000 policymakers, 50 non-high-income countries)
11 Policy Steering Groups (44 policymakers) to co-define PRM1 questions.
9 Core Working Groups (100 stakeholders) to co-design PRM1 scenarios.
2 policy briefs
(b) Exchanging
Open science and model interlinkage protocols, machine-actionable data management plan (Argos), and Zenodo community.
I2AM PARIS Upgrade: 51 models, 22 documentation videos, 1 tool for standardised outputs, 1 tool for model results validity/vetting, 2 new workspaces.
(c) Modelling
Policy catalogue, model coordination, data/policy harmonisation, and broad scenario protocols.
Global-level emissions and warming projections, regional mitigation analyses (EU, India, China, USA), sectoral and sub-national deep dives in Europe.
(d) Expanding
Open database & model inter-comparison on COVID-19 recovery packages.
Cutting-edge micro-simulation & macroeconomic modelling to understand distributional impacts.
IAMs stress-tested in extremes, alongside expert interviews.
Representation of behaviour change & social innovation, co-created quantitative narratives.
(e) Explaining
Several policy events, 22 videos, 10 infographics, 11 media articles, 13 newsletters/press releases, 26 papers, 17 conferences, 7 open datasets, 1 Special Issue, 2 policy briefs, submission of scenarios and 1 policy brief to the EU SAB on Climate Change.
Mapping of global drivers, barriers, and policies for sectoral decarbonisation.
Capacity development (workshops, courses, material) in Ethiopia, Sri Lanka, and Kenya.
O1:
-1 report on global mitigation and regional (EU, India, China, and US) long-term targets
-1 report on EU sectoral decarbonisation (steel, raw materials, capacity & flexibility requirements, small-scale PV uptake, a multi-model deep dive into Greece’s new NECP)
-1 report on spatially explicit analysis in Europe (health & equality, security, resilience, flexibility, costs)
-1 paper, 2 conferences, 1 brief on tackling the energy crisis in the EU
-1 paper, 1 conference on the climate assessment workflow
-1 inter-comparison paper on global and regional mitigation (and feasibility)
-1 inter-comparison paper, 2 conferences on the EU’s net zero target
-1 viewpoint on challenges related to scenario databases
-1 perspective on the curation of the IPCC scenario database
-1 review of coal transitions
O2:
-Global database and inter-comparison of green recovery impacts
-1 model integration tool for distributional analysis, piloted for the Energy Taxation Directive
-1 report, 1 book chapter on distributional impacts of climate policy in Greece
-1 comment on short-term health co-benefits of climate policies
-1 inter-comparison paper on the impacts of EU decarbonisation on SDGs
-6 conferences
O3:
-1 harmonisation process, 1 relevant database for modelling exercises
-1 analysis of underrepresented disruptive innovations and technologies (cleantech diffusion, role of CDR, interest rates, firms’ credit/financial risk)
-1 report on global drivers, barriers, and policies considering political, social, economic, structural, technological, individual factors across sectors
-1 paper on cleantech scale-up uncertainty
-1 opinion piece on principles for assessing new tech opportunities
-1 viewpoint on CDR controversies
-1 analysis mitigation scenario variations
-3 conferences
O4:
-1 policy brief on our PRM
-1 co-created modelling paper for Greece
-1 timely viewpoint on loss and damage
-1 paper, 1 conference on co-created transformative policy mixes in 5 countries
-1 special issue on stakeholder-driven modelling
-1 paper on a framework for participatory modelling
O5:
-1 new tool for validity/vetting checks of modelling data
-1 analysis on model typologies and characterisation
-1 literature review of policy types from a modelling perspective
-1 paper, 1 tool to process GCAM outputs in the IAMC template
-1 conference
O6:
-I2AM PARIS upgrade & operation
-1 analysis of state-of-art open science practices
-13 newsletters/press releases
-5 joint events (synergies)
-11 media articles
-26 papers, 17 conferences
O7:
-1 literature review, expert interviews, assessment of the impact of technology limitations on EU decarbonisation, and framework for enhancing model capacity for extremes in IAMs
-1 paper on low-carbon innovations
-1 perspective on resilience risks of technologies
-1 paper on mitigation pathways course correction
-1 paper on the optimal speed of cleantech diffusion
O8:
-1 training and teaching kit for modelling.
-1 comment on the crucial need of critical climate education
-1 paper presenting the training course for MUSE
-1 report on global mitigation and regional (EU, India, China, and US) long-term targets
-1 report on EU sectoral decarbonisation (steel, raw materials, capacity & flexibility requirements, small-scale PV uptake, a multi-model deep dive into Greece’s new NECP)
-1 report on spatially explicit analysis in Europe (health & equality, security, resilience, flexibility, costs)
-1 paper, 2 conferences, 1 brief on tackling the energy crisis in the EU
-1 paper, 1 conference on the climate assessment workflow
-1 inter-comparison paper on global and regional mitigation (and feasibility)
-1 inter-comparison paper, 2 conferences on the EU’s net zero target
-1 viewpoint on challenges related to scenario databases
-1 perspective on the curation of the IPCC scenario database
-1 review of coal transitions
O2:
-Global database and inter-comparison of green recovery impacts
-1 model integration tool for distributional analysis, piloted for the Energy Taxation Directive
-1 report, 1 book chapter on distributional impacts of climate policy in Greece
-1 comment on short-term health co-benefits of climate policies
-1 inter-comparison paper on the impacts of EU decarbonisation on SDGs
-6 conferences
O3:
-1 harmonisation process, 1 relevant database for modelling exercises
-1 analysis of underrepresented disruptive innovations and technologies (cleantech diffusion, role of CDR, interest rates, firms’ credit/financial risk)
-1 report on global drivers, barriers, and policies considering political, social, economic, structural, technological, individual factors across sectors
-1 paper on cleantech scale-up uncertainty
-1 opinion piece on principles for assessing new tech opportunities
-1 viewpoint on CDR controversies
-1 analysis mitigation scenario variations
-3 conferences
O4:
-1 policy brief on our PRM
-1 co-created modelling paper for Greece
-1 timely viewpoint on loss and damage
-1 paper, 1 conference on co-created transformative policy mixes in 5 countries
-1 special issue on stakeholder-driven modelling
-1 paper on a framework for participatory modelling
O5:
-1 new tool for validity/vetting checks of modelling data
-1 analysis on model typologies and characterisation
-1 literature review of policy types from a modelling perspective
-1 paper, 1 tool to process GCAM outputs in the IAMC template
-1 conference
O6:
-I2AM PARIS upgrade & operation
-1 analysis of state-of-art open science practices
-13 newsletters/press releases
-5 joint events (synergies)
-11 media articles
-26 papers, 17 conferences
O7:
-1 literature review, expert interviews, assessment of the impact of technology limitations on EU decarbonisation, and framework for enhancing model capacity for extremes in IAMs
-1 paper on low-carbon innovations
-1 perspective on resilience risks of technologies
-1 paper on mitigation pathways course correction
-1 paper on the optimal speed of cleantech diffusion
O8:
-1 training and teaching kit for modelling.
-1 comment on the crucial need of critical climate education
-1 paper presenting the training course for MUSE