Periodic Reporting for period 1 - LOCALISED (Localised decarbonisation pathways for citizens, local administrations and businesses to inform for mitigation and adaptation action)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2021-10-01 al 2023-03-31
The LOCALISED project addresses the need to have regional data and knowledge as effective support for municipalities and businesses in speeding-up net-zero efforts and climate adaptation planning. The few available European platforms providing information on energy transition to net-zero in Europe have so far limited their scope and results to the national level. As a consequence, they are not designed to stimulate decarbonisation actions at the most relevant decision scale. Accordingly, the LOCALISED project aims at deriving regional data on energy and climate impacts that can feed into innovative tools informing municipalities and businesses on crucial knowledge for decarbonisation and adaptation. The knowledge expected is varied, namely: supporting cities with the filling of mandatory data energy and adaptation plans (SECAPs); provide viable combinations of adaptation/mitigation measures; screening of business vulnerability and technological solutions; to the integration of a strong social perspective in the tools to be developed.
During the first 18 months the focus was on implementing management and communication structures to diligently support the team's work, and on making the first contributions towards the fulfilling of the project's key objectives. Regarding the latter, we highlight the main results achieved so far:
(1) Initial library of 54 decarbonization pathways covering nine EU member states informed by country-specific long-term strategies. For each pathway, the library covers multiple aspects of the energy/economy system such as: vehicle fleet, residential buildings renewed, energy demand by carrier, energy production by technology, agriculture or industrial production.
(2) A method was developed to downscale national-level energy models to regions, and a database and API were created to facilitate data access. The next steps include developing better proxies for disaggregation and validating results with local partners.
(3) A decision-tree method was developed to classify climate actions into measures, instruments, or options. An unified database was established with 314 adaptation and/or mitigation measures and 214 instruments. Lightweight optimization methods were scrutinised, and a genetic algorithm was selected. The algorithm is implemented as part of the Multi-criteria Mitigation and Adaptation Solver, a model able to select feasible sets of mitigation and adaptation options on a regional basis. Two use cases developed to showcase the approach.
(4) A bibliographic analysis was carried out to propose 93 Sustainable development Oriented Indicators (SOIs), establishing a robust link between the different targets of the SDGs and the requested sections of the SECAPs, which inform the indicator scope for downscaling. The analysis also focused on the decarbonization of the building sector.
(5) A semi-qualitative survey was conducted in three focus cities to understand perceptions and attitudes towards decarbonization of traditionally vulnerable groups. The engagement of city-administrations with citizens has started in one of the focus areas.
(6) An innovative framework was defined for the assessment of vulnerability of businesses to decarbonization. Business-related indicators and activities for three economic sectors have been identified, and the process of identifying emerging approaches to technologies for decarbonization through interaction with business stakeholders has started.
(7) A 3-phase stakeholder interaction methodology created to inform the co-creation process. Initial insights from phase-1 were evaluated and served to outline initial thoughts and features of the Decarbonisation Profiler (DP) and the Net-Zero Business Consultant (NZBC) tools.
(8) Based on the LOCALISED Dissemination and Communication strategy, communication tools such as the project website and social media were set up, communication material was produced and partners presented the project in a number of events on local, national, European and international level. In addition, LOCALISED is an active member in the Green Deal Support Office Climate Change & Biodiversity Working Group and established collaboration with ICLEI and the Covenant of Mayors Secretariat.
(1) Initial library of 54 decarbonization pathways covering nine EU member states informed by country-specific long-term strategies. For each pathway, the library covers multiple aspects of the energy/economy system such as: vehicle fleet, residential buildings renewed, energy demand by carrier, energy production by technology, agriculture or industrial production.
(2) A method was developed to downscale national-level energy models to regions, and a database and API were created to facilitate data access. The next steps include developing better proxies for disaggregation and validating results with local partners.
(3) A decision-tree method was developed to classify climate actions into measures, instruments, or options. An unified database was established with 314 adaptation and/or mitigation measures and 214 instruments. Lightweight optimization methods were scrutinised, and a genetic algorithm was selected. The algorithm is implemented as part of the Multi-criteria Mitigation and Adaptation Solver, a model able to select feasible sets of mitigation and adaptation options on a regional basis. Two use cases developed to showcase the approach.
(4) A bibliographic analysis was carried out to propose 93 Sustainable development Oriented Indicators (SOIs), establishing a robust link between the different targets of the SDGs and the requested sections of the SECAPs, which inform the indicator scope for downscaling. The analysis also focused on the decarbonization of the building sector.
(5) A semi-qualitative survey was conducted in three focus cities to understand perceptions and attitudes towards decarbonization of traditionally vulnerable groups. The engagement of city-administrations with citizens has started in one of the focus areas.
(6) An innovative framework was defined for the assessment of vulnerability of businesses to decarbonization. Business-related indicators and activities for three economic sectors have been identified, and the process of identifying emerging approaches to technologies for decarbonization through interaction with business stakeholders has started.
(7) A 3-phase stakeholder interaction methodology created to inform the co-creation process. Initial insights from phase-1 were evaluated and served to outline initial thoughts and features of the Decarbonisation Profiler (DP) and the Net-Zero Business Consultant (NZBC) tools.
(8) Based on the LOCALISED Dissemination and Communication strategy, communication tools such as the project website and social media were set up, communication material was produced and partners presented the project in a number of events on local, national, European and international level. In addition, LOCALISED is an active member in the Green Deal Support Office Climate Change & Biodiversity Working Group and established collaboration with ICLEI and the Covenant of Mayors Secretariat.
During the first reporting period the project made a number of promising advances upon which successful scientific insights and operational tools can be built upon. Whenever relevant, wider social impact of the expected results of LOCALISED are also reported.
(I) The first set of energy-model pathways derived from a systematic bottom-up analysis of heterogeneous national decarbonisation strategies is highly complementary to top-down assessments in which country pathways are constrained by common factors such as carbon budget and pricing. A comparison of the final library of pathways in LOCALISED - that fully embeds the diversity of sectoral views across member states - with those from traditional Integrated Assessment Models could reveal in which countries major re-alignments in national strategies are needed. Associated with the downscaling methodology being currently developed, it is expected that this information will allow to narrow the persistent gap between EU-level policy, National strategies, and regional implementation of climate plans.
(II) The conceptualization of a Multi-criteria Mitigation and Adaptation Solver was an important step forward towards making some of the LOCALISED tools a reality. The approach allows to calculate feasible combinations of regional mitigation and adaptation options that are constrained by both user input and downscaled data from national decarbonisation pathways. In order to supply the solver with adequate lists of options, the project unified existing databases of mitigation and adaptation at EU-level and from international initiatives. This was possible via a decision-tree method that systematically classifies climate actions according to their role in the implementation process (measures, instruments, options). Allowing users to set multiple model/pathway constraints and obtain suggestions of measures aligned with those constraints is expected to be of great value for local climate planning - as local authorities do not always have the competences to evaluate multiple sets of options under an optimization framework.
(III) An important synthesis of knowledge was achieved via the proposition of SOI’s as robust link between targets figuring in Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and information in different sections of the SECAPs. This enables reporting of both initiatives based on a single set of indicators, thus allowing the optimization of resources. One promising impact of this work was exemplified in the first evaluation of renovation wave policies carried out for three example countries. The project was able to uncover links between renovation policies, the unified database of mitigation and adaptation measures/instruments, as well as with relevant SOIs. This can set the scene for a replicable and comprehensive evaluation methodology for the assessment of renovation wave programmes in other EU countries. The project is now setting up efforts to demonstrate the application of the same framework at the regional level for selected countries.
(I) The first set of energy-model pathways derived from a systematic bottom-up analysis of heterogeneous national decarbonisation strategies is highly complementary to top-down assessments in which country pathways are constrained by common factors such as carbon budget and pricing. A comparison of the final library of pathways in LOCALISED - that fully embeds the diversity of sectoral views across member states - with those from traditional Integrated Assessment Models could reveal in which countries major re-alignments in national strategies are needed. Associated with the downscaling methodology being currently developed, it is expected that this information will allow to narrow the persistent gap between EU-level policy, National strategies, and regional implementation of climate plans.
(II) The conceptualization of a Multi-criteria Mitigation and Adaptation Solver was an important step forward towards making some of the LOCALISED tools a reality. The approach allows to calculate feasible combinations of regional mitigation and adaptation options that are constrained by both user input and downscaled data from national decarbonisation pathways. In order to supply the solver with adequate lists of options, the project unified existing databases of mitigation and adaptation at EU-level and from international initiatives. This was possible via a decision-tree method that systematically classifies climate actions according to their role in the implementation process (measures, instruments, options). Allowing users to set multiple model/pathway constraints and obtain suggestions of measures aligned with those constraints is expected to be of great value for local climate planning - as local authorities do not always have the competences to evaluate multiple sets of options under an optimization framework.
(III) An important synthesis of knowledge was achieved via the proposition of SOI’s as robust link between targets figuring in Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and information in different sections of the SECAPs. This enables reporting of both initiatives based on a single set of indicators, thus allowing the optimization of resources. One promising impact of this work was exemplified in the first evaluation of renovation wave policies carried out for three example countries. The project was able to uncover links between renovation policies, the unified database of mitigation and adaptation measures/instruments, as well as with relevant SOIs. This can set the scene for a replicable and comprehensive evaluation methodology for the assessment of renovation wave programmes in other EU countries. The project is now setting up efforts to demonstrate the application of the same framework at the regional level for selected countries.