Epidemic intelligence to minimize 2019-nCoV’s public health, economic and social impact in Europe

Rezultaty

Metadata describing the research data to facilitate re-use by other consortia and groups (attached to D1.3 in terms of the timeline with the same target users) after review by the steering committee Time of delivery - Update within 30 days of new data collection

Algorithms for nowcasting and short-term forecasting of 2019-nCoV epidemic

Software deliverable: Algorithms for nowcasting and short-term forecasting of 2019-nCoV epidemic (M3, target users: public health agencies, scientific community)

2019-nCoV data repository

Data repository containing all research data generated during the project (starting M1 with regular updates, target users: other EpiPose WP researchers, scientific community, PH authorities) for internal use as well as for sharing after review by the steering committee (see WP6). Updates within 30 days of new data collection

Real-time epidemic risk assessment tool

Real-time epidemic risk assessment tool (M1, target users: public health agencies, scientific community)

Updated Data lake with survey, platform and social media data provided

Report on impact of information exposure on collective attention

Report on impact of information exposure on collective attention (month 12)

Report summarising spread of co-circulating pathogens comparing meta-population models and IBM as part of O3.3

Report summarising spread of cocirculating pathogens comparing metapopulation models and IBM as part of O33

Inventory of results

Inventory of results (M 1-36 bi-monthly)

Report summarising dissemination activities year 2
Report on effect of 2019-nCoV on social contact patterns in 20 European populations

Report on effect of 2019nCoV on social contact patterns in European populations including results on the prolonged data collection in Belgium

Updated report on impact of information exposure on collective attention
report summarising dissemination activities year 3
Report summarising full set of interventions and comparison with modelling results based on Branching processes (O3.2)

Report summarising full set of interventions and comparison with modelling results based on Branching processes O32

Report summarising impact of interventions on co-circulation using the IBM, i.e. the results of O3.3.

Report summarising impact of interventions on cocirculation using the IBM ie the results of O33

Improved methods and estimates of 2019-nCoV epidemic

Improved methods and estimates of 2019-nCoV epidemic. We will provide robust methods that are insensitive to/or can identify occasional outliers, suffer little bias and are most informative for public health decision making. Target users: public health agencies, scientific community)

Report summarising spread of 2019-nCoV in Europe from models in O3.1

Report summarising spread of 2019-nCoV in Europe from models in O3.1.

Dissemination plan

Dissemination plan to implement Task 6.1 (dissemination of methods and results) 6.2 (outreach to national and international stakeholders) and 6.3 (Communication via social media, newspapers etc)

Report summarizing real time updates under task 5.1 and 5.2

report summarizing real time updates under task 5.1 (disease burden and associated resource use) and 5.2 (macro-economic impact)

Report summarising dissemination activities year 1
Report summarizing task 5.1 and 5.2 activities

report summarizing task 5.1(disease burden and associated resource use) and 5.2 (macro-economic impact)

Final report summarizing accomplished task5.1, 5.2 and 5.3 activities

Final report summarizing accomplished task 51 disease burden resource use 52 macroeconomid impact and 53 costeffectiveness analysis activities

Report on the drivers of adherence with social distancing within and between different countries and on insights into differences in populations' risk perception based on quantitative analysis in extended Task 4.1.

Report on the drivers of adherence with social distancing within and between different countries and on insights into differences in populations risk perception based on quantitative analysis in extended Task 41

A detailed quantitative comparison of the efficacy of different combinations of social distance measures across most European countries as measured through real-time tracking of the reproduction number

Report on a detailed quantitative comparison of the efficacy of different combinations of social distance measures across most European countries as measured through realtime tracking of the reproduction number

Updated report on impact of information exposure on collective attention
Report summarising impact of initial set of interventions
Complete epidemiological assessment of 2019-nCoV epidemic

Epidemiological assessment during epidemic and in the aftermath of the epidemic Target users public health agencies scientific community

Interim activity report
Advice to public health

Advice to PH authorities in and outside the consortium on what data to collect (e.g. advisory documents, contribution to working groups) (M1 with regular updates, target users: other EpiPose WP researchers, scientific community, PH authorities)

modules on social contact patterns and risk behaviours to be integrated within participating Influenzanet partners

development of modules on social contact patterns and risk behaviours to be integrated within participating Influenzanet partners

Project website

Public website available to release updates of project outputs to lay public and press, when and where deemed appropriate by the SC.

Publikacje

Real-time monitoring of COVID-19 dynamics using automated trend fitting and anomaly detection

Autorzy: Thibaut Jombart, Stéphane Ghozzi, Dirk Schumacher, Timothy J. Taylor, Quentin J. Leclerc, Mark Jit, Stefan Flasche, Felix Greaves, Tom Ward, Rosalind M. Eggo, Emily Nightingale, Sophie Meakin, Oliver J. Brady, Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Graham F. Medley, Michael Höhle, and W. John Edmunds
Opublikowane w: The royal society B, 2021, ISSN 0962-8436
Wydawca: Royal Society of London
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0266

Dynamics of non-household contacts during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 in the Netherlands

Autorzy: Jantien A. Backer, Laurens Bogaardt, Philippe Beutels, Pietro Coletti, W. John Edmunds, Amy Gimma, Cheyenne C. E. van Hagen, Niel Hens, Christopher I. Jarvis, Eric R. A. Vos, James Wambua, Denise Wong, Kevin van Zandvoort & Jacco Wallinga
Opublikowane w: Scientific Reports, 2023, ISSN 2045-2322
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-32031-7

Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: A living systematic review and meta-analysis

Autorzy: Diana Buitrago-Garcia, Dianne Egli-Gany, Michel J. Counotte, Stefanie Hossmann, Hira Imeri, Aziz Mert Ipekci, Georgia Salanti, Nicola Low
Opublikowane w: PLOS Medicine, Numer 17/9, 2020, Strona(/y) e1003346, ISSN 1549-1676
Wydawca: PLOS Medicine
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346

The impact of local and national restrictions in response to COVID-19 on social contacts in England: a longitudinal natural experiment

Autorzy: Christopher I. Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Kevin van Zandvoort, Kerry L. M. Wong, W. John Edmunds
Opublikowane w: BMC Medicine, Numer 19/1, 2021, ISSN 1741-7015
Wydawca: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-01924-7

Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: A modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe

Autorzy: Anthony Hauser, Michel J. Counotte, Charles C. Margossian, Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, Nicola Low, Christian L. Althaus, Julien Riou
Opublikowane w: PLOS Medicine, Numer 17/7, 2020, Strona(/y) e1003189, ISSN 1549-1676
Wydawca: PLOS
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003189

How can early stage economic evaluation help guide research for future vaccines?

Autorzy: Newall AT, Beutels P, Tuffaha HW, Hall PS, Jit M
Opublikowane w: Vaccine, 2022, ISSN 0264-410X
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.11.017

Models of COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation: a systematic literature search and narrative review

Autorzy: Nuru Saadi; Y-Ling Chi; Srobana Ghosh; Rosalind M Eggo; Ciara V McCarthy; Matthew Quaife; Jeanette Dawa; Jeanette Dawa; Mark Jit; Anna Vassall
Opublikowane w: BMC Med, Numer 1, 2021, ISSN 1741-7015
Wydawca: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1101/2021.06.21.21259104

Long-term health-related quality of life in non-hospitalised COVID-19 cases with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in England: Longitudinal analysis and cross-sectional comparison with controls

Autorzy: Sandmann FG, Tessier E, Lacy J, Kall M, Van Leeuwen E, Charlett A, Eggo RM, Dabrera G, Edmunds WJ, Ramsay M, Campbell H, Amirthalingam G, Jit M.
Opublikowane w: Clin Infect Dis, 2022, ISSN 1537-6591
Wydawca: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciac151

Inferring age-specific differences in susceptibility to and infectiousness upon SARS-CoV-2 infection based on Belgian social contact data

Autorzy: Nicolas Franco; Pietro Coletti; Lander Willem; Leonardo Angeli; Adrien Lajot; Abrams Steven; Philippe Beutels; Christel Faes; Niel Hens
Opublikowane w: Plos Computational Biology, Numer 1, 2022, ISSN 1553-7358
Wydawca: Plos
DOI: 10.1101/2021.10.10.21264753

Impact of physical distancing measures against COVID-19 on contacts and mixing patterns: repeated cross-sectional surveys, the Netherlands, 2016–17, April 2020 and June 2020

Autorzy: Jantien A Backer, Liesbeth Mollema, Eric RA Vos, Don Klinkenberg, Fiona RM van der Klis, Hester E de Melker, Susan van den Hof, Jacco Wallinga
Opublikowane w: Eurosurveillance, Numer 26/8, 2021, ISSN 1560-7917
Wydawca: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.8.2000994

Continuous population-level monitoring of SARSCoV-2 seroprevalence in a large Europeanmetropolitan region

Autorzy: Marc Emmenegger, Elena De Cecco, David Lamparter, Raphaël P. B. Jacquat, Julien Riou, Dominik Menges, Tala Ballouz, Daniel Ebner, Mathias M. Schneider, Itzel Condado Morales, Berre Doğançay, Jingjing Guo, Anne Wiedmer, Julie Domange, Marigona Imeri, Rita Moos, Chryssa Zografou, Leyla Batkitar, Lidia Madrigal, Dezirae Schneider, Chiara Trevisan, Andres Gonzalez-Guerra, Alessandra Carrella, Ir
Opublikowane w: iScience, 2023, ISSN 2589-0042
Wydawca: Cell Press Elsevier Inc.
DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.105928

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

Autorzy: Andrew Clark, Mark Jit, Charlotte Warren-Gash, Bruce Guthrie, Harry H X Wang, Stewart W Mercer, Colin Sanderson, Martin McKee, Christopher Troeger, Kanyin L Ong, Francesco Checchi, Pablo Perel, Sarah Joseph, Hamish P Gibbs, Amitava Banerjee, Rosalind M Eggo, Emily S Nightingale, Kathleen O'Reilly, Thibaut Jombart, W John Edmunds, Alicia Rosello, Fiona Yueqian Sun, Katherine E Atkins, Nikos I Bosse
Opublikowane w: The Lancet Global Health, Numer 8/8, 2020, Strona(/y) e1003-e1017, ISSN 2214-109X
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30264-3

Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland

Autorzy: Nikos I. Bosse ,Sam Abbott,Johannes Bracher,Habakuk Hain,Billy J. Quilty,Mark Jit,Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group,Edwin van Leeuwen,Anne Cori,Sebastian Funk
Opublikowane w: PLOS Computational Biology, 2022, ISSN 1553-734X
Wydawca: Public Library of Science
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010405

A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation

Autorzy: Emil Nafis Iftekhar, Viola Priesemann,a Rudi Balling, Simon Bauer,a Philippe Beutels, André Calero Valdez, Sarah Cuschieri, Thomas Czypionka, Uga Dumpis, Enrico Glaab, Eva Grill,Claudia Hanson, Pirta Hotulainen, Peter Klimek, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Tyll Krüger, Jenny Krutzinna, Nicola Low, Helena Machado, Carlos Martins, Martin McKee, Sebastian Bernd Mohr, Armin Nassehi, Matjaž Perc, Elena Petelos
Opublikowane w: The Lancet Regional Health, 2021, ISSN 0140-6736
Wydawca: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100185

Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK

Autorzy: Christopher I. Jarvis, Kevin Van Zandvoort, Amy Gimma, Kiesha Prem, Petra Klepac, G. James Rubin, W. John Edmunds
Opublikowane w: BMC Medicine, Numer 18/1, 2020, ISSN 1741-7015
Wydawca: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01597-8

Time between Symptom Onset, Hospitalisation and Recovery or Death: Statistical Analysis of Belgian COVID-19 Patients

Autorzy: Christel Faes, Steven Abrams, Dominique Van Beckhoven, Geert Meyfroidt, Erika Vlieghe, Niel Hens
Opublikowane w: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Numer 17/20, 2020, Strona(/y) 7560, ISSN 1660-4601
Wydawca: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17207560

Evaluation of home detection algorithms on mobile phone data using individual-level ground truth

Autorzy: Luca Pappalardo, Leo Ferres, Manuel Sacasa, Ciro Cattuto, Loreto Bravo
Opublikowane w: EPJ Data Science, Numer 10/1, 2021, ISSN 2193-1127
Wydawca: EPJ Data Science
DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00284-9

Multi-country collaboration in responding to global infectious disease threats: lessons for Europe from the COVID-19 pandemic

Autorzy: Jit M, Ananthakrishnan A, McKee M, Wouters OJ, Beutels P, Teerawattananon Y.
Opublikowane w: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, 2021, ISSN 2666-7762
Wydawca: Elsivier
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100221

Estimating the generation interval for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) based on symptom onset data, March 2020

Autorzy: Tapiwa Ganyani, Cécile Kremer, Dongxuan Chen, Andrea Torneri, Christel Faes, Jacco Wallinga, Niel Hens
Opublikowane w: Eurosurveillance, Numer 25/17, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Wydawca: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.17.2000257

Implications of the school-household network structure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission under school reopening strategies in England

Autorzy: James D. Munday, Katharine Sherratt, Sophie Meakin, Akira Endo, Carl A. B. Pearson, Joel Hellewell, Sam Abbott, Nikos I. Bosse, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Katherine E. Atkins, Jacco Wallinga, W. John Edmunds, Albert Jan van Hoek & Sebastian Funk
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22213-0

Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study

Autorzy: Michael J. Tildesley; Anna Vassall; Steven Riley; Mark Jit; Frank Sandmann; Edward M. Hill; Robin N. Thompson; Benjamin D. Atkins; John Edmunds; Louise Dyson; Matt J. Keeling
Opublikowane w: Royal Society Open Science, Numer 1, 2022, ISSN 2054-5703
Wydawca: Royal Society
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.211746

Computational strategies to combat COVID-19: useful tools to accelerate SARS-CoV-2 and coronavirus research.

Autorzy: Franziska Hufsky; Kevin Lamkiewicz; Alexandre Almeida; Abdel Aouacheria; Cecilia N. Arighi; Alex Bateman; Jan Baumbach; Niko Beerenwinkel; Christian Brandt; Marco Cacciabue; Sara Chuguransky; Oliver Drechsel; Robert D. Finn; Adrian Fritz; Stephan Fuchs; Georges Hattab; Anne-Christin Hauschild; Dominik Heider; Marie Hoffmann; Martin Hölzer; Stefan Hoops; Lars Kaderali; Ioanna Kalvari; Max von Klei
Opublikowane w: Brief Bioinform, Numer 39, 2021, ISSN 1477-4054
Wydawca: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/bib/bbaa232

Estimating the effect of social inequalities on the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile

Autorzy: Nicolò Gozzi, Michele Tizzoni, Matteo Chinazzi, Leo Ferres, Alessandro Vespignani, Nicola Perra
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, Numer 12/1, 2021, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22601-6

Survival among people hospitalized with COVID-19 in Switzerland: a nationwide population-based analysis

Autorzy: Nanina Anderegg, Radoslaw Panczak, Matthias Egger, Nicola Low, and Julien Riou
Opublikowane w: BMC Medicine, 2022, ISSN 1741-7015
Wydawca: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02364-7

Poor self-reported adherence to COVID-19-related quarantine/isolation requests, Norway, April to July 2020

Autorzy: Steens Anneke, Freiesleben de Blasio Birgitte, Veneti Lamprini, Gimma Amy, Edmunds W John, Van Zandvoort Kevin, Jarvis Christopher I, Forland Frode, Robberstad Bjarne.
Opublikowane w: Eurosurveillance, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Wydawca: ECDC
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.37.2001607

A data-driven metapopulation model for the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic: assessing the impact of lockdown and exit strategies

Autorzy: Pietro Coletti, Pieter Libin, Oana Petrof, Lander Willem, Steven Abrams, Sereina A. Herzog, Christel Faes, Elise Kuylen, James Wambua, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens
Opublikowane w: BMC Infectious Diseases, Numer 21/1, 2021, ISSN 1471-2334
Wydawca: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06092-w

A Data-Driven Simulation of the Exposure Notification Cascade for Digital Contact Tracing of SARS-CoV-2 in Zurich, Switzerland

Autorzy: Dominik Menges, Hélène E. Aschmann, André Moser, Christian L. Althaus, Viktor von Wyl
Opublikowane w: Jama Network Open, 2021, ISSN 0098-7484
Wydawca: American Medical Association
DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.8184

Assessing the feasibility and effectiveness of household-pooled universal testing to control COVID-19 epidemics

Autorzy: Pieter J. K. Libin, Lander Willem, Timothy Verstraeten, Andrea Torneri, Joris Vanderlocht, Niel Hens
Opublikowane w: PLOS Computational Biology, Numer 17/3, 2021, Strona(/y) e1008688, ISSN 1553-7358
Wydawca: PLOS Computational Biology
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008688

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model

Autorzy: Ciara V. McCarthy, Oscar O’Mara, Edwin van Leeuwen, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Mark Jit & Frank Sandmann
Opublikowane w: BMC Public Health, 2022, ISSN 1471-2458
Wydawca: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12889-022-13219-4

Risk factors associated with the incidence of self-reported COVID-19-like illness: data from a web-based syndromic surveillance system in the Netherlands

Autorzy: Scott A. McDonald, Cees C. van den Wijngaard, Cornelia C. H. Wielders, Ingrid H. M. Friesema, Loes Soetens, Daniela Paolotti, Susan van den Hof, Albert Jan van Hoek
Opublikowane w: Epidemiology and Infection, 2021, ISSN 0950-2688
Wydawca: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/s0950268821001187

Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era

Autorzy: Ciara McCarthy; Nikos I. Bosse; Christopher Jarvis; Nicholas Davies; Sam Abbott; Stefan Flasche; Mark Jit; Billy Quilty; Yang Liu; Simon Procter
Opublikowane w: Nature Communications, Numer 1, 2022, ISSN 2041-1723
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y

Assessing real-world vaccine effectiveness against severe forms of SARS-CoV-2 infection: an observational study from routine surveillance data in Switzerland

Autorzy: Nanina Anderegg, Christian L. Althaus, Samuel Colin, Anthony Hausera, Anne Laube, Mirjam Mäusezahl, Moritz Wagner, Biagio Zaffora, Julien Rioua
Opublikowane w: Swiss Medical Weekly, 2022, ISSN 1424-7860
Wydawca: EMH Swiss Medical Publishers Ltd
DOI: 10.4414/smw.2022.w30163

A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19

Autorzy: Andrea Torneri, Pieter Libin, Joris Vanderlocht, Anne-Mieke Vandamme, Johan Neyts, Niel Hens
Opublikowane w: BMC Medicine, Numer 18/1, 2020, ISSN 1741-7015
Wydawca: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01636-4

Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands.

Autorzy: Scott A. McDonald; Fuminari Miura; Eric R.A. Vos; Michiel van Boven; Hester E. de Melker; Fiona R. M. van der Klis; Rob van Binnendijk; Gerco den Hartog; Jacco Wallinga
Opublikowane w: European Journal of Epidemiology, Numer 1, 2021, ISSN 0393-2990
Wydawca: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y

Pregnancy during COVID-19: social contact patterns and vaccine coverage of pregnant women from CoMix in 19 European countries

Autorzy: Kerry L. M. Wong, Amy Gimma, Enny S. Paixao, CoMix Europe Working Group, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens, Christopher I. Jarvis & W. John Edmunds
Opublikowane w: BMC Pregnancy and child birth, 2022, ISSN 1471-2393
Wydawca: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12884-022-05076-1

The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model

Autorzy: Marcus R. Keogh-Brown, Henning Tarp Jensen, W. John Edmunds, Richard D. Smith
Opublikowane w: SSM - Population Health, Numer 12, 2020, Strona(/y) 100651, ISSN 2352-8273
Wydawca: ScienceDirect
DOI: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2020.100651

Determinants of RSV epidemiology following suppression through pandemic contact restrictions

Autorzy: Mihaly Koltai, Fabienne Krauer, David Hodgson, Edwin van Leeuwen, Marina Treskova-Schwarzbach, Mark Jit, Stefan Flasche
Opublikowane w: Epidemics, 2022, ISSN 1755-4365
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100614

Are People Optimistically Biased about the Risk of COVID-19 Infection? Lessons from the First Wave of the Pandemic in Europe

Autorzy: Kathleen McColl, Marion Debin, Cecile Souty, Caroline Guerrisi, Clement Turbelin, Alessandra Falchi, Isabelle Bonmarin, Daniela Paolotti, Chinelo Obi, Jim Duggan, Yamir Moreno, Ania Wisniak, Antoine Flahault, Thierry Blanchon, Vittoria Colizza, Jocelyn Raude
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022, ISSN 1660-4601
Wydawca: MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19010436

Ceci n'est pas un lit. Base capacity healthcare matters in a pandemic

Autorzy: Philippe Beutels, Frederik Verelst
Opublikowane w: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Numer 2, 2021, Strona(/y) 100033, ISSN 2666-7762
Wydawca: The Lancet Regional Health - Europe
DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100033

The effect of travel restrictions on the geographical spread of COVID-19 between large cities in China: a modelling study

Autorzy: Billy J. Quilty, Charlie Diamond, Yang Liu, Hamish Gibbs, Timothy W. Russell, Christopher I. Jarvis, Kiesha Prem, Carl A. B. Pearson, Samuel Clifford, Stefan Flasche, CMMID COVID-19 working group, Petra Klepac, Rosalind M. Eggo & Mark Jit
Opublikowane w: BMC Medicine, 2020, ISSN 1741-7015
Wydawca: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01712-9

Can COVID-19 symptoms as reported in a large-scale online survey be used to optimise spatial predictions of COVID-19 incidence risk in Belgium?

Autorzy: Thomas Neyens, Christel Faes, Maren Vranckx, Koen Pepermans, Niel Hens, Pierre Van Damme, Geert Molenberghs, Jan Aerts, Philippe Beutels
Opublikowane w: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, Numer 35, 2020, Strona(/y) 100379, ISSN 1877-5845
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2020.100379

Dynamic interventions to control COVID-19 pandemic: a multivariate prediction modelling study comparing 16 worldwide countries

Autorzy: Rajiv Chowdhury, Kevin Heng, Md Shajedur Rahman Shawon, Gabriel Goh, Daisy Okonofua, Carolina Ochoa-Rosales, Valentina Gonzalez-Jaramillo, Abbas Bhuiya, Daniel Reidpath, Shamini Prathapan, Sara Shahzad, Christian L. Althaus, Nathalia Gonzalez-Jaramillo, Oscar H. Franco
Opublikowane w: European Journal of Epidemiology, Numer 35/5, 2020, Strona(/y) 389-399, ISSN 0393-2990
Wydawca: Kluwer Academic Publishers
DOI: 10.1007/s10654-020-00649-w

Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study

Autorzy: Billy J Quilty MSc, Samuel Clifford PhD, Joel Hellewell PhD, Timothy W Russell PhD, Adam J Kucharski PhD, Prof Stefan Flasche, Prof W John Edmunds
Opublikowane w: The Lancet Public Health, 2021, ISSN 2468-2667
Wydawca: Elsevier ltd.
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(20)30308-x

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission across 130 countries and territories

Autorzy: Yang Liu, Christian Morgenstern, James Kelly, Rachel Lowe, Mark Jit
Opublikowane w: BMC Medicine, Numer 19/1, 2021, ISSN 1741-7015
Wydawca: BioMed Central
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-020-01872-8

Socioeconomic position and the COVID-19 care cascade from testing to mortality in Switzerland: a population-based analysis

Autorzy: Julien Riou, Radoslaw Panczak, Christian L Althaus, Christoph Junker, Damir Perisa, Katrin Schneider, Nicola G Criscuolo, Nicola Low, Matthias Egger
Opublikowane w: The Lancet, 2021, ISSN 0140-6736
Wydawca: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00160-2

Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

Autorzy: Mark Jit, Thibaut Jombart, Emily S Nightingale, Akira Endo, Sam Abbott, W John Edmunds
Opublikowane w: Eurosurveillance, Numer 25/18, 2020, ISSN 1560-7917
Wydawca: Eurosurveillance
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.18.2000632

Projecting contact matrices in 177 geographical regions: An update and comparison with empirical data for the COVID-19 era

Autorzy: Kiesha Prem,Kevin van Zandvoort,Petra Klepac,Rosalind M. Eggo,Nicholas G. Davies,Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group ,Alex R. Cook,Mark Jit
Opublikowane w: Plos Computational Biology, 2021, ISSN 1553-7358
Wydawca: Plos
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009098

The influence of risk perceptions on close contact frequency during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Autorzy: James Wambua, Lisa Hermans, Pietro Coletti, Frederik Verelst, Lander Willem, Christopher I. Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Kerry L. M. Wong, Adrien Lajot, Stefaan Demarest, W. John Edmunds, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens
Opublikowane w: Scientific reports, 2022, ISSN 2045-2322
Wydawca: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-09037-8

Shorter serial intervals in SARS-CoV-2 cases with Omicron BA.1 variant compared with Delta variant, the Netherlands, 13 to 26 December 2021

Autorzy: Jantien A Backer, Dirk Eggink, Stijn P Andeweg, Irene K Veldhuijzen, Noortje van Maarseveen, Klaas Vermaas, Boris Vlaemynck, Raf Schepers, Susan van den Hof, Chantal BEM Reusken, Jacco Wallinga
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Autorzy: Olivier J Wouters, Kenneth C Shadlen, Maximilian Salcher-Konrad, Andrew J Pollard, FMedSci, Heidi J Larson, Yot Teerawattananon, Mark Jit
Opublikowane w: The Lancet, 2021, ISSN 0140-6736
Wydawca: The Lancet Publishing Group
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The impact of COVID-19 control measures on social contacts and transmission in Kenyan informal settlements

Autorzy: Matthew Quaife, Kevin van Zandvoort, Amy Gimma, Kashvi Shah, Nicky McCreesh, Kiesha Prem, Edwine Barasa, Daniel Mwanga, Beth Kangwana, Jessie Pinchoff, W. John Edmunds, Christopher I. Jarvis, Karen Austrian
Opublikowane w: BMC Medicine, Numer 18/1, 2020, ISSN 1741-7015
Wydawca: BioMed Central
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Early Evidence of Effectiveness of Digital Contact Tracing for SARS-CoV-2 in Switzerland

Autorzy: Marcel Salathé; Christian L. Althaus; Nanina Anderegg; Daniele Antonioli; Tala Ballouz; Edouard Bugnon; Srdjan Capkun; Dennis Jackson; Sang-Il Kim; James R. Larus; Nicola Low; Wouter Lueks; Dominik Menges; Cédric Moullet; Mathias Payer; Julien Riou; Theresa Stadler; Carmela Troncoso; Effy Vayena; Viktor von Wyl
Opublikowane w: Swiss Medical Weekly, 150, Numer 1, 2020, Strona(/y) ISSN: 1424-3997, ISSN 1424-3997
Wydawca: EMH Swiss Medical Publishers Ltd.
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Outbreaks of publications about emerging infectious diseases: the case of SARS-CoV-2 and Zika virus

Autorzy: Aziz Mert Ipekci, Diana Buitrago-Garcia, Kaspar Walter Meili, Fabienne Krauer, Nirmala Prajapati, Shabnam Thapa, Lea Wildisen, Lucia Araujo-Chaveron, Lukas Baumann, Sanam Shah, Tessa Whiteley, Gonzalo Solís-García, Foteini Tsotra, Ivan Zhelyazkov, Hira Imeri, Nicola Low, Michel Jacques Counotte
Opublikowane w: BMC Medical Research Methodology, Numer 21/1, 2021, ISSN 1471-2288
Wydawca: BioMed Central
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Towards a European strategy to address the COVID-19 pandemic

Autorzy: Viola Priesemann, Rudi Balling , Simon Bauer , Philippe Beutels, André Calero Valdez d Sarah Cuschieri , Thomas Czypionka, Uga Dumpis , Enrico Glaab , Eva Grill , Pirta Hotulainen , Emil N Iftekhar, Jenny Krutzinna, Christos Lionis, Helena Machado, Carlos Martins , Martin McKee, George N Pavlakis, Matjaž Perc, Elena Petelos, Martyn Pickersgill, Barbara Prainsack, Joacim Rocklöv, Eva Schernhamme
Opublikowane w: The Lancet, 2021, ISSN 1474-547X
Wydawca: Elsevier
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Socio-demographic characteristics associated with COVID-19 vaccination uptake in Switzerland: longitudinal analysis of the CoMix study

Autorzy: Martina L Reichmuth, Leonie Heron, Julien Riou, André Moser, Anthony Hauser, Nicola Low, Christian L Althaus
Opublikowane w: MedRxiv, 2023
Wydawca: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.13.23287183

Time is of the essence: containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland from February to May 2020

Autorzy: Christian L. Althaus, Daniel Probst, Anthony Hauser, Julien Riou
Opublikowane w: MedRxiv, 2020
Wydawca: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.21.20158014

Key performance indicators of COVID-19 contact tracing in Belgium from September 2020 to December 2021

Autorzy: Cécile Kremer, Lander Willem, Jorden Boone, Wouter Arrazola de Oñate, Naïma Hammami, Christel Faes, Niel Hens
Opublikowane w: MedRxiv, 2022
Wydawca: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2022.10.04.22280542

Global misinformation spillovers in the online vaccination debate before and during COVID-19

Autorzy: Jacopo Lenti, Kyriaki Kalimeri, André Panisson, Daniela Paolotti, Michele Tizzani, Yelena Mejova, Michele Starnini
Opublikowane w: arXiv, 2022
Wydawca: arXiv
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2211.11495

Reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in a primary school using epidemiological and genomic data

Autorzy: Cécile Kremer, Andrea Torneri, Pieter J. K. Libin, Cécile Meex, Marie-Pierre Hayette, Sébastien Bontems, Keith Durkin, Maria Artesi, Vincent Bours, Philippe Lemey, Gilles Darcis, Niel Hens, Christelle Meuris
Opublikowane w: MedRxiv, 2022
Wydawca: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2022.10.17.22281175

Dose-response modelling of endemic coronavirus and SARS-CoV-2: human challenge trials reveal the individual variation in susceptibility

Autorzy: Fuminari Miura, Don Klinkenberg, Jacco Wallinga
Opublikowane w: MedRxiv, 2022
Wydawca: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2022.04.07.22273549

Projected epidemiological consequences of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England, December 2021 to April 2022

Autorzy: Rosanna C. Barnard, Nicholas G. Davies, Carl A. B. Pearson, Mark Jit, W. John Edmunds
Opublikowane w: MedRxiv, 2021
Wydawca: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.12.15.21267858

Longitudinal social contact data analysis: insightsfrom 2 years of data collection in Belgium duringthe COVID-19 pandemic

Autorzy: Neilshan Loedy, Pietro Coletti, Wambua, Lisa Hermans, Lander Willem, Christopher I. Jarvis, Kerry L.M. Wong, W. John Edmunds, Alexis Robert, Quentin J. Leclerc, Amy Gimma, Geert Molenberghs, Philippe Beutels, Christel Faes, Niel Hens
Opublikowane w: Research Square, 2023
Wydawca: Research Square

Who Acquires Infection from Whom? A Sensitivity Analysis of Transmission Dynamics During the Early Phase of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Belgium

Autorzy: Angeli, Leonardo and Caetano, Constantino Pereira and Franco, Nicolas and Abrams, Steven and Coletti, Pietro and Van Nieuwenhuyse, Inneke and Pop, Sorin and Hens, Niel
Opublikowane w: 2023
Wydawca: SSRN
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4445989

Real-time modeling and projections of the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland.

Autorzy: Althaus, C.
Opublikowane w: 2020
Wydawca: ispmbern.github

Echoes through Time: Evolution of the Italian COVID-19 Vaccination Debate

Autorzy: Giuseppe Crupi, Yelena Mejova, Michele Tizzani, Daniela Paolotti, Andre Panisson
Opublikowane w: arXiv, 2022
Wydawca: NAP
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2204.12943

The impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on COVID-19 disease outcomes

Autorzy: Kylie E. C. Ainslie, Jantien Backer, Pieter de Boer, Albert Jan van Hoek, Don Klinkenberg, Hester Korthals Altes, Ka Yin Leung, Hester de Melker, Fuminari Miura, Jacco Wallinga
Opublikowane w: MedRXiV, 2021
Wydawca: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.10.21.21265318

Living Evidence on COVID-19

Autorzy: COVID-19 Open Access Project, Counotte M, Imeri H, Heron L, Ipekci AM
Opublikowane w: 2021
Wydawca: ispmbern.github

Age-specific severity of SARS-CoV-2 in February 2020 – June 2021 in the Netherlands

Autorzy: Pieter T. de Boer, Jan van de Kassteele, Eric R.A. Vos, Liselotte van Asten, Dave A. Dongelmans, Arianne B. van Gageldonk-Lafeber, Gerco den Hartog, Agnetha Hofhuis, Fiona van der Klis, Dylan W. de Lange, Lenny Stoeldraijer, the RIVM COVID-19 epidemiology and surveillance team, Hester E. de Melker, Eveline Geubbels, Susan van den Hof, Jacco Wallinga
Opublikowane w: MedRxiv, 2023
Wydawca: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2023.02.09.23285703

Thesis paper on the escalation model of the Swiss Epidemics Act (EpidA)

Autorzy: PD Dr. Christian L. Althaus, Dr. Caroline Schlaufer, Prof. Dr. Annika Frahsa, Dr. Susanne Hadorn, Prof. Dr. Fritz Sager, Prof. Dr. Marcel Zwahlen
Opublikowane w: 2022
Wydawca: Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), UBern

Impact of tiered measures on social contact and mixing patterns in Italy during the second wave of COVID-19.

Autorzy: Michele Tizzani, Alessandro De Gaetano, Christopher I Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Kerry Wong, W John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens, Pietro Coletti, Daniela Paolotti
Opublikowane w: Research Square, 2022
Wydawca: Research Square
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Social contact patterns following the COVID-19 pandemic: a snapshot of post-pandemic behaviour from the CoMix study

Autorzy: Christopher I Jarvis, Pietro Coletti, Jantien A Backer, James D Munday, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels, Christian Althaus, Nicola Low, Martina Reichmuthantien, Jacco Wallinga, Niel Hens, W John Edmunds
Opublikowane w: 2023
Wydawca: CIMMID Github

The influence of COVID-19 risk perception and vaccination status on the number of social contacts across Europe: insights from the CoMix study

Autorzy: James Wambua, Neilshan Loedy, Christopher I Jarvis, Kerry LM Wong, Christel Faes, Rok Grah, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandmann, Rene Niehus, Helen Johnson, W.John Edmunds, Philippe Beutels, Niel Hens, Pietro Coletti
Opublikowane w: MedRxiv, 2022
Wydawca: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2022.11.25.22282676

Bayesian nowcasting with Laplacian-P-splines

Autorzy: Bryan Sumalinab, Oswaldo Gressani, Niel Hens, Christel Faes
Opublikowane w: MedRxiv, 2022
Wydawca: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2022.08.26.22279249

EpiLPS: a fast and flexible Bayesian tool for near real-time estimation of the time-varying reproduction number

Autorzy: Oswaldo Gressani, Jacco Wallinga, Christian Althaus, Niel Hens, Christel Faes
Opublikowane w: MedRxiv, 2021
Wydawca: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.12.02.21267189

Rapid replacement of the Beta variant by the Delta variant in South Africa

Autorzy: Houriiyah Tegally, Eduan Wilkinson, Christian L. Althaus, Marta Giovanetti, James Emmanuel San, Jennifer Giandhari, Sureshnee Pillay, Yeshnee Naidoo, Upasana Ramphal, Nokukhanya Msomi, Koleka Mlisana, Daniel G. Amoako, Josie Everatt, Thabo Mohale, Anele Nguni, Boitshoko Mahlangu, Noxolo Ntuli, Zamantungwa T. Khumalo, Zinhle Makatini, Nicole Wolter, Cathrine Scheepers, Arshad Ismail, Deelan Doolabh
Opublikowane w: MedRXiv, 2021
Wydawca: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.09.23.21264018

Importation of Alpha and Delta variants during the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland: phylogenetic analysis and intervention scenarios

Autorzy: Martina L Reichmuth, Emma B Hodcroft, Christian L Althaus
Opublikowane w: MedRxiv, 2023
Wydawca: MedRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2023.03.13.23287198

Behaviour, booster vaccines and waning vaccine protection: modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England

Autorzy: Rosanna C. Barnard, Nicholas G. Davies, Mark Jit, W.John Edmunds
Opublikowane w: MedRxiv, 2021
Wydawca: NAP
DOI: 10.1101/2021.11.22.21266584

Population disruption: observational study of changes in the population distribution of the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic

Autorzy: Hamish Gibbs, Naomi R. Waterlow, James Cheshire, Leon Danon, Yang Liu, Chris Grundy, Adam J. Kucharski, LSHTM CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Rosalind M. Eggo
Opublikowane w: Welcome Open Research, 2022
Wydawca: Welcome Open Research
DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.18358.1

A linear Mixed Model to Estimate COVID-19-induced Excess Mortality

Autorzy: Johan Verbeeck, Christel Faes, Thomas Neyens, Niel Hens, Geert Verbeke, Patrick Deboosere, Geert Molenberghs
Opublikowane w: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Wydawca: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2021.05.10.21256942

The effect of international travel restrictions on internal spread of COVID-19

Autorzy: Timothy W Russell, Joseph T Wu, Sam Clifford, CMMID COVID-19 working group, W John Edmunds, Adam J. Kucharski, Mark Jit
Opublikowane w: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Wydawca: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2020.07.12.20152298

On the timing of interventions to preserve hospital capacity: lessons to be learned from the Belgian SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Autorzy: Niel Hens, Christel Faes, Marius Gilbert
Opublikowane w: Acrhives of Public health, 2021, ISSN 2049-3258
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1101/2020.12.18.20248450

Belgian COVID-19 Mortality, Excess Deaths, Number of Deaths per Million, and Infection Fatality Rates (9 March — 28 June 2020)

Autorzy: Geert Molenberghs, Christel Faes, Johan Verbeeck, Patrick Deboosere, Steven Abrams, Lander Willem, Jan Aerts, Heidi Theeten, Brecht Devleesschauwer, Natalia Bustos Sierra, Françoise Renard, Sereina Herzog, Patrick Lusyne, Johan Van der Heyden, Herman Van Oyen, Pierre Van Damme, Niel Hens
Opublikowane w: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Wydawca: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2020.06.20.20136234

Estimating the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in England, using weekly contact survey data

Autorzy: James D Munday, Christopher I Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Kerry LM Wong, Kevin van Zandvoort, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Sebastian Funk, W. John Edmunds
Opublikowane w: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Wydawca: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2021.03.06.21252964

A tale of two variants: Spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants Alpha in Geneva, Switzerland, and Beta in South Africa

Autorzy: Christian L. Althaus, Stephanie Baggio, Martina L. Reichmuth, Emma B. Hodcroft, Julien Riou, Richard A. Neher, Frédérique Jacquerioz, Hervé Spechbach, Julien Salamun, Pauline Vetter, Carolyn Williamson, Nei-yuan Hsiao, Wolfgang Preiser, Mary-Ann Davies, Richard J. Lessells, Tulio de Olivera, Laurent Kaiser, Isabella Eckerle
Opublikowane w: medRxiv, 2021, ISSN 1476-4687
Wydawca: medRxiv
DOI: 10.1101/2021.06.10.21258468

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