EXTREME EVENTS: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION

CORDIS fornisce collegamenti ai risultati finali pubblici e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti ORIZZONTE.

I link ai risultati e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti del 7° PQ, così come i link ad alcuni tipi di risultati specifici come dataset e software, sono recuperati dinamicamente da .OpenAIRE .

Risultati finali

Report and delivery of a draft framework for event definition developed in collaboration with stakeholders

(Task 2.1) This report will provide clear guidance and principles on how to define an event to be considered in an attribution study that is on one hand closely related to what actually caused the damages and thus societies are vulnerable to and on the other hand can in principle be simulated using state-of-the-art climate models. Given the diverse nature of damages, societies and stakeholders as well as hazards there will be no strict framework, but instead a set of principles that allows flexibility with respect to divers vulnerabilities and stakeholder needs.

Report on joint activities with other EU projects

[Task 1.3] This report will describe the common activities that have took place at M18 with other EU. We envisage in particular a strong link with the C3S, and the H2020 EUCP project. We will report also on common activities with parallel projects of the same call.

List of high precipitation and flood events for the present and future periods

"By using the available observations and survey a list of high precipitation and flood events will be compiled. For hurricanes we will largely rely on the HURDAT database available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#hurdat. A similar list will be done for the events detected and not by the CP models in present and future scenario simulations. (from Task 8.1)"

Report on the Summer training school

Report on the Summer training school. The report will include in particular the programme, the training exercises, the number of participant, an evaluation from participating students and young researchers. [Task 1.2]

Report detailing and collating databases of impacts, vulnerability and exposure relevant to extreme weather events

(Task 2.2) This report will provide an overview of currently available data and crucially highlight gaps in the data available to truly learn from past extreme events. This will consist of hazard data as well as data on damages, economic and non-economic but also other determinants of vulnerability, like population structure and changes. Ultimately allowing stakeholders to assess physical, transition and liability risks.

Value promotion plan

A plan for promoting various values from the promotion committee (recruitment, climate and environment fairness, communication, ethics)

Project website

The website will target both the scientific community and the large public and updated on a regular basis.

Open source code for detection and characterization of spatio-temporal extreme events

(Task 3.2) An open source toolbox based on spatio-temporal deep learning architectures will be deployed with tunable parameterizations and training modules. Several examples of use will be included to deal with (i) detection and (ii) characterization of extremes. A Jupyter notebook will exemplify tools, tuning and applications in control scenarios, aimed to serve adoption by other members of the consortium (inside WP3 and in collaborations with WP4 and WP7). This deliverable will be also accompanied by a report on the theoretical underpinnings and limitations of the proposed methods in terms of computational efficiency, automatism and robustness (to noise and dimensionality).

Pubblicazioni

How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

Autori: Dim Coumou, Paola A Arias, Ana Bastos, Charlotte Kendra Gotangco Gonzales, Gabriele C Hegerl, Pandora Hope, Christopher Jack, Friederike Otto, Fahad Saeed, Olivia Serdeczny, Theodore G Shepherd, Robert Vautard
Pubblicato in: PNAS Nexus, Numero 3, 2024, ISSN 2752-6542
Editore: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277

Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought

Autori: Emanuele Bevacqua, Oldrich Rakovec, Dominik L. Schumacher, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Jakob Zscheischler
Pubblicato in: Nature Geoscience, Numero 17, 2024, Pagina/e 1100-1107, ISSN 1752-0894
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2

Strengthening gradients in the tropical west Pacific connect to European summer temperatures on sub-seasonal timescales

Autori: Chiem van Straaten, Dim Coumou, Kirien Whan, Bart van den Hurk, Maurice Schmeits
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2025, Pagina/e 887–903, ISSN 2698-4016
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-2023-6

Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of MoSE adaptation strategy

Autori: Davide Faranda, Mireia Ginesta, Tommaso Alberti, Erika Coppola, Marco Anzidei
Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numero 6, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00513-0

Discovering causal relations and equations from data

Autori: Gustau Camps-Valls, Andreas Gerhardus, Urmi Ninad, Gherardo Varando, Georg Martius, Emili Balaguer-Ballester, Ricardo Vinuesa, Emiliano Diaz, Laure Zanna, Jakob Runge
Pubblicato in: Physics Reports, Numero 1044, 2024, Pagina/e 1-68, ISSN 0370-1573
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.physrep.2023.10.005

Soil heat extremes can outpace air temperature extremes

Autori: Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Diego G. Miralles, Miguel D. Mahecha, Johannes Quaas, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Zscheischler, Jian Peng
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, Numero 13, 2023, Pagina/e 1237-1241, ISSN 1758-678X
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01812-3

Simulating the Western North America heatwave of 2021 with analogue importance sampling

Autori: Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Pascal Yiou, Aglaé Jézéquel, Gabriele Messori
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numero 43, 2024, Pagina/e 100651, ISSN 2212-0947
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100651

A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events

Autori: Ana Bastos, Sebastian Sippel, Dorothea Frank, Miguel D. Mahecha, Sönke Zaehle, Jakob Zscheischler, Markus Reichstein
Pubblicato in: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Numero 4, 2023, Pagina/e 333-350, ISSN 2662-138X
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00410-3

Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

Autori: Bevacqua, E., De Michele, C., Manning, C., Couasnon, A., Ribeiro, A. F. S., Ramos, A. M., Vignotto, E., Bastos, A., Blesić, S., Durante, F., Hillier, J., Oliveira, S. C., Pinto, J. G., Ragno, E., Rivoire, P., Saunders, K., van der Wiel, K., Wu, W., Zhang, T., Zscheischler, J.
Pubblicato in: Earth's Future, 2022, ISSN 2328-4277
Editore: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002340

Hydroclimatic extremes contribute to asymmetric trends in ecosystem productivity loss

Autori: Jun Li, Emanuele Bevacqua, Zhaoli Wang, Stephen Sitch, Vivek Arora, Almut Arneth, Atul K. Jain, Daniel Goll, Hanqin Tian, Jakob Zscheischler
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero 4, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00869-4

Record events attribution in climate studies

Autori: Julien Worms, Philippe Naveau
Pubblicato in: Environmetrics, Numero Volume 33, Numero 8, 2022, ISSN 1180-4009
Editore: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/env.2777

Detecting Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Western European Heatwaves Using Deep Learning

Autori: T. Happé, J. S. Wijnands, M. Á. Fernández-Torres, P. Scussolini, L. Muntjewerf, D. Coumou
Pubblicato in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Numero 3, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Editore: American Meteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-23-0107.1

Human influences on spatially compounding flooding and heatwave events in China and future increasing risks

Autori: Cheng Qian, Yangbo Ye, Emanuele Bevacqua, Jakob Zscheischler
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numero 42, 2024, Pagina/e 100616, ISSN 2212-0947
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100616

Classification of tropical cyclone containing images using a convolutional neural network: performance and sensitivity to the learning dataset

Autori: Olivier Boucher; Sébastien Gardoll
Pubblicato in: Geoscientific Model Development, Numero 15, 2022, Pagina/e 7051-7073, ISSN 1991-9603
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-7051-2022

Circulation dampened heat extremes intensification over the Midwest USA and amplified over Western Europe

Autori: Jitendra Singh, Sebastian Sippel, Erich M. Fischer
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero 4, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01096-7

Early snowmelt and polar jet dynamics co–influence recent extreme Siberian fire seasons

Autori: Rebecca C. Scholten, Dim Coumou, Fei Luo, and Sander Veraverbeke
Pubblicato in: Science, Numero Vol 378, Numero 6623, 2022, Pagina/e 1005-1009, ISSN 0036-8075
Editore: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/science.abn4419

Harbingers of decades of unnatural disasters

Autori: Friederike E. L. Otto, Emmanuel Raju
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero 4, 2023, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-00943-x

The AIDE Toolbox: Artificial intelligence for disentangling extreme events [Software and Data Sets]

Autori: Maria Gonzalez-Calabuig, Jordi Cortés-Andrés, Tristan Keith Ellis Williams, Mengxue Zhang, Oscar Jose Pellicer-Valero, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls
Pubblicato in: IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Magazine, Numero 12, 2024, Pagina/e 113-118, ISSN 2168-6831
Editore: IEEE Geosciene and Remote Sensing Society
DOI: 10.1109/mgrs.2024.3382544

Formally combining different lines of evidence in extreme-event attribution

Autori: Friederike E. L. Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Robert Vautard
Pubblicato in: Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, Numero 10, 2024, Pagina/e 159-171, ISSN 2364-3587
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/ascmo-10-159-2024

Exploring interactions between socioeconomic context and natural hazards on human population displacement

Autori: Michele Ronco, José María Tárraga, Jordi Muñoz, María Piles, Eva Sevillano Marco, Qiang Wang, Maria Teresa Miranda Espinosa, Sylvain Ponserre, Gustau Camps-Valls
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43809-8

Finding the Right XAI Method—A Guide for the Evaluation and Ranking of Explainable AI Methods in Climate Science

Autori: Philine Lou Bommer, Marlene Kretschmer, Anna Hedström, Dilyara Bareeva, Marina M.-C. Höhne
Pubblicato in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Numero 3, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Editore: American MEteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-23-0074.1

How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation

Autori: Pascal Yiou, Robert Vautard, Yoann Robin, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Fabio D’Andrea, Robin Noyelle
Pubblicato in: Climate Services, Numero 36, 2024, Pagina/e 100518, ISSN 2405-8807
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518

Skillful U.S. Soy Yield Forecasts at Presowing Lead Times

Autori: Sem Vijverberg, Raed Hamed, Dim Coumou
Pubblicato in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Numero 2, 2025, ISSN 2769-7525
Editore: American Meteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-21-0009.1

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Autori: Iris Elisabeth de Vries; Sebastian Sippel; Angeline Greene Pendergrass; Reto Knutti
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 14, 2023, Pagina/e 81-100, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-81-2023

Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations

Autori: Emanuele Bevacqua, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Aglaé Jézéquel, Flavio Lehner, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Jakob Zscheischler
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-37847-5

Time of emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties

Autori: Bastien François, Mathieu Vrac
Pubblicato in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numero 23, 2025, Pagina/e 21-44, ISSN 1684-9981
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023

Heat extremes linearly shift with global warming, with frequency doubling per decade since 1979

Autori: Robert Vautard, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Izidine Pinto, Friederieke E L Otto
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 19, 2024, Pagina/e 094033, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad63be

Biodiversity and Climate Extremes: Known Interactions and Research Gaps

Autori: M. D. Mahecha, A. Bastos, F. J. Bohn, N. Eisenhauer, H. Feilhauer, T. Hickler, H. Kalesse‐Los, M. Migliavacca, F. E. L. Otto, J. Peng, S. Sippel, I. Tegen, A. Weigelt, M. Wendisch, C. Wirth, D. Al‐Halbouni, H. Deneke, D. Doktor, S. Dunker, G. Duveiller, A. Ehrlich, A. Foth, A. García‐García, C. A. Guerra, C. Guimarães‐Steinicke, H. Hartmann, S. Henning, H. Herrmann, P. Hu, C. Ji, T. Kat
Pubblicato in: Earth's Future, Numero 12, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef003963

Dynamical footprints of Hurricanes in the Tropical Dynamics

Autori: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Thao, Flavio Pons, Berengere Dubrulle
Pubblicato in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2022, ISSN 1054-1500
Editore: American Institute of Physics
DOI: 10.1063/5.0093732

Developing Low‐Likelihood Climate Storylines for Extreme Precipitation Over Central Europe

Autori: C. Gessner, E. M. Fischer, U. Beyerle, R. Knutti
Pubblicato in: Earth's Future, Numero 11, 2024, ISSN 2328-4277
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef003628

Uncertainty Quantification When Learning Dynamical Models and Solvers With Variational Methods

Autori: N. Lafon, R. Fablet, P. Naveau
Pubblicato in: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Numero 15, 2023, ISSN 1942-2466
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022ms003446

Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

Autori: Bevacqua, E., Zappa, G., Lehner, F., Zscheischler, J.
Pubblicato in: Nature Climate Change, 2022, ISSN 1758-6798
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01309-5

ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate

Autori: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Robert Vautard
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numero 5, 2024, Pagina/e 959-983, ISSN 2698-4016
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024

Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought

Autori: Dominik L. Schumacher, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Matthew Rodell, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington, Flavio Lehner, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Sonia I. Senevi
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 15, 2024, Pagina/e 131-154, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/esd-15-131-2024

Attributing Compound Events to Anthropogenic Climate Change

Autori: Jakob Zscheischler, Flavio Lehner
Pubblicato in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Numero Volume 103, Numero 3, 2022, Pagina/e E936–E953, ISSN 0003-0007
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-21-0116.1

Combinations of drivers that most favor the occurrence of daily precipitation extremes

Autori: Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Emanuele Bevacqua, Luis Gimeno
Pubblicato in: Atmospheric Research, Numero 294, 2023, Pagina/e 106959, ISSN 0169-8095
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106959

Combining climate models and observations to predict the time remaining until regional warming thresholds are reached

Autori: Elizabeth A Barnes, Noah S Diffenbaugh, Sonia I Seneviratne
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 20, 2024, Pagina/e 014008, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad91ca

Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan

Autori: Friederike E L Otto, Mariam Zachariah, Fahad Saeed, Ayesha Siddiqi, Shahzad Kamil, Haris Mushtaq, T Arulalan, Krishna AchutaRao, S T Chaithra, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Robert Vautard, Gerbrand Koren, Izidine Pinto, Piotr Wolski, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Lisa Thalheimer, Emmanuel Raju, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Luke J Harrington, Ben Clarke
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research: Climate, Numero 2, 2023, Pagina/e 025001, ISSN 2752-5295
Editore: IOP Science
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/acbfd5

Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The Role of the social Superstructure Narrative

Autori: Friederike E. L. Otto; Petra Minnerop; Emmanuel Raju; Luke J. Harrington; Rupert F. Stuart‐Smith; Emily Boyd; Rachel James; Richard Jones; Kristian C. Lauta
Pubblicato in: Global Policies, Numero Volume 13, Numero 5, 2022, Pagina/e 623-833, ISSN 1758-5880
Editore: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.13113

Reconstruction of zonal precipitation from sparse historical observations using climate model information and statistical learning

Autori: Egli, M., Sippel, S., Pendergrass, A. G., de Vries, I., & Knutti, R.
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 49, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099826

Regional asymmetry in the response of global vegetation growth to springtime compound climate events

Autori: Jun Li; Emanuele Bevacqua; Chi Chen; Zhaoli Wang; Xiaohong Chen; Ranga B. Myneni; Xushu Wu; Chong-Yu Xu; Zhenxing Zhang; Jakob Zscheischler
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero 3;123, 2022, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Communications Earth & Environment
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00455-0

Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes

Autori: Dominik L. Schumacher, Jitendra Singh, Mathias Hauser, Erich M. Fischer, Martin Wild, Sonia I. Seneviratne
Pubblicato in: Communications Earth & Environment, Numero 5, 2024, ISSN 2662-4435
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01332-8

Identifying probabilistic weather regimes targeted to a local-scale impact variable

Autori: Fiona R. Spuler, Marlene Kretschmer, Yevgeniya Kovalchuk, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Theodore G. Shepherd
Pubblicato in: Environmental Data Science, Numero 3, 2025, ISSN 2634-4602
Editore: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/eds.2024.29

Deep Learning With Noisy Labels for Spatiotemporal Drought Detection

Autori: Jordi Cortés-Andrés, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls
Pubblicato in: IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Numero 62, 2024, Pagina/e 1-13, ISSN 0196-2892
Editore: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
DOI: 10.1109/tgrs.2024.3504340

Correcting Subseasonal Forecast Errors with an Explainable ANN to Understand Misrepresented Sources of Predictability of European Summer Temperatures

Autori: Chiem van Straaten, Kirien Whan, Dim Coumou, Bart van den Hurk, Maurice Schmeits
Pubblicato in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Numero 2, 2025, Pagina/e 1-21, ISSN 2769-7525
Editore: American Meteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-22-0047.1

Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends

Autori: Robert Vautard, Julien Cattiaux, Tamara Happé, Jitendra Singh, Rémy Bonnet, Christophe Cassou, Dim Coumou, Fabio D’Andrea, Davide Faranda, Erich Fischer, Aurélien Ribes, Sebastian Sippel, Pascal Yiou
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 14, 2024, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3

Strong Linkage Between Observed Daily Precipitation Extremes and Anthropogenic Emissions Across the Contiguous United States

Autori: J. S. Nanditha, Gabriele Villarini, Hanbeen Kim, Philippe Naveau
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 51, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl109553

Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives

Autori: Stefano Materia, Lluís Palma García, Chiem van Straaten, Sungmin O, Antonios Mamalakis, Leone Cavicchia, Dim Coumou, Paolo de Luca, Marlene Kretschmer, Markus Donat
Pubblicato in: WIREs Climate Change, Numero 15, 2024, ISSN 1757-7780
Editore: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.914

High return level estimates of daily ERA-5 precipitation in Europe estimated using regionalized extreme value distributions

Autori: Pauline Rivoire, Philomène Le Gall, Anne-Catherine Favre, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numero Volume 38, 2022, ISSN 2212-0947
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100500

Decadal to centennial extreme precipitation disaster gaps — Long-term variability and implications for extreme value modelling

Autori: Joel Zeder, Erich M. Fischer
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numero 43, 2024, Pagina/e 100636, ISSN 2212-0947
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100636

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021

Autori: Faranda, D., Bourdin, S., Ginesta, M., Krouma, M., Messori, G., Noyelle, R., Pons, F., and Yiou, P.
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numero 3, 1311–1340, 2022, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022

Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting

Autori: E. M. Fischer, U. Beyerle, L. Bloin-Wibe, C. Gessner, V. Humphrey, F. Lehner, A. G. Pendergrass, S. Sippel, J. Zeder, R. Knutti
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40112-4

Attribution of Extreme Events to Climate Change

Autori: Friederike E.L. Otto
Pubblicato in: Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Numero 48, 2023, Pagina/e 813-828, ISSN 1543-5938
Editore: Annual Reviews, Inc.
DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-112621-083538

Human influence on growing-period frosts like the early April 2021 in Central France

Autori: Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Pubblicato in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2025, ISSN 1684-9981
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-41

Challenges in Attributing the 2022 Australian Rain Bomb to Climate Change

Autori: Cadiou, C., Noyelle, R., Malhomme, N., Faranda, D.
Pubblicato in: Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2022, ISSN 1976-7951
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1007/s13143-022-00305-1

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe

Autori: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou
Pubblicato in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Numero 120, 2023, ISSN 0027-8424
Editore: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Multimodel Errors and Emergence of Times in Climate Attribution Studies

Autori: Naveau, P., Thao, S.
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Numero Volume 35, Numero 14, 2022, Pagina/e 4791–4804, ISSN 0894-8755
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0332.1

Drivers and Mechanisms of the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Autori: D. L. Schumacher, M. Hauser, S. I. Seneviratne
Pubblicato in: Earth's Future, Numero Volume 10, Numero 12, 2022, ISSN 2328-4277
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022ef002967

Broadening the scope of anthropogenic influence in extreme event attribution

Autori: Aglaé Jézéquel, Ana Bastos, Davide Faranda, Joyce Kimutai, Natacha Le Grix, Anna M Wilson, Samuel Rufat, Theodore G Shepherd, Rupert F Stuart-Smith, Anne F Van Loon, Emanuele Bevacqua, Fabio D’Andrea, Flavio Lehner, Elisabeth A Lloyd, Julia Moemken, Alexandre M Ramos, Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research: Climate, Numero 3, 2024, Pagina/e 042003, ISSN 2752-5295
Editore: IOP Science
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ad7527

Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective

Autori: Ben Clarke; Friederike Otto; Rupert Stuart-Smith; Luke Harrington
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Climate, Numero 1, 2022, ISSN 2752-5295
Editore: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/ac6e7d

Robust detection of forced warming in the presence of potentially large climate variability

Autori: Sebastian Sippel, Nicolai Meinshausen, Enikő Székely, Erich Fischer, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Reto Knutti
Pubblicato in: Science Advances, Numero Vol. 7, No. 43, 2021, ISSN 2375-2548
Editore: American Association for the Advancement of Science
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abh4429

Extreme heat wave sampling and prediction with analog Markov chain and comparisons with deep learning

Autori: George Miloshevich, Dario Lucente, Pascal Yiou, Freddy Bouchet
Pubblicato in: Environmental Data Science, Numero 3, 2024, ISSN 2634-4602
Editore: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/eds.2024.7

Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes

Autori: Elizabeth J. Kendon, Erich M. Fischer, Chris J. Short
Pubblicato in: Nature Communications, Numero 14, 2023, ISSN 2041-1723
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36499-9

Insights into the Drivers and Spatiotemporal Trends of Extreme Mediterranean Wildfires with Statistical Deep Learning

Autori: Jordan Richards, Raphaël Huser, Emanuele Bevacqua, Jakob Zscheischler
Pubblicato in: Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, Numero 2, 2024, ISSN 2769-7525
Editore: American Meteorology Society
DOI: 10.1175/aies-d-22-0095.1

Analysing 23 years of warm-season derechos in France: a climatology and investigation of synoptic and environmental changes

Autori: Lucas Fery, Davide Faranda
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numero 5, 2025, Pagina/e 439-461, ISSN 2698-4016
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024

Persistent anticyclonic conditions and climate change exacerbated the exceptional 2022 European-Mediterranean drought

Autori: Davide Faranda, Salvatore Pascale, Burak Bulut
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, 2023, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbc37

Maximal reachable temperatures for Western Europe in current climate

Autori: Robin Noyelle, Yi Zhang, Pascal Yiou, Davide Faranda
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 18, 2023, Pagina/e 094061, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acf679

Time of Emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties

Autori: Bastien François; Mathieu Vrac
Pubblicato in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numero 23, 2023, Pagina/e 21-44, ISSN 1684-9981
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-2022-127

Equalising the evidence base for adaptation and loss and damages

Autori: Friederike E. L. Otto, Frederick Fabian
Pubblicato in: Global Policy, Numero 15, 2024, Pagina/e 64-74, ISSN 1758-5880
Editore: John Wiley and Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.13269

Early-twentieth-century cold bias in ocean surface temperature observations

Autori: Sebastian Sippel, Elizabeth C. Kent, Nicolai Meinshausen, Duo Chan, Christopher Kadow, Raphael Neukom, Erich M. Fischer, Vincent Humphrey, Robert Rohde, Iris de Vries, Reto Knutti
Pubblicato in: Nature, Numero 635, 2025, Pagina/e 618-624, ISSN 0028-0836
Editore: Nature Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08230-1

Stable sums to infer high return levels of multivariate rainfall time series

Autori: Gloria Buriticá, Philippe Naveau
Pubblicato in: Environmetrics, 2022, ISSN 1180-4009
Editore: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/env.2782

Identifying compound weather drivers of forest biomass loss with generative deep learning

Autori: Mohit Anand, Friedrich J. Bohn, Gustau Camps-Valls, Rico Fischer, Andreas Huth, Lily-belle Sweet, Jakob Zscheischler
Pubblicato in: Environmental Data Science, Numero 3, 2024, ISSN 2634-4602
Editore: Cambridge University Press
DOI: 10.1017/eds.2024.2

Spatial variability in Alpine reservoir regulation: deriving reservoir operations from streamflow using generalized additive models

Autori: Manuela Irene Brunner, Philippe Naveau
Pubblicato in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Numero 27, 2025, Pagina/e 673-687, ISSN 1607-7938
Editore: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
DOI: 10.5194/hess-27-673-2023

The Effect of a Short Observational Record on the Statistics of Temperature Extremes

Autori: Joel Zeder, Sebastian Sippel, Olivier C. Pasche, Sebastian Engelke, Erich M. Fischer
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 50, 2024, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2023gl104090

A shifting climate: <scp>New</scp> paradigms and challenges for (early career) scientists in extreme weather research

Autori: Marlene Kretschmer, Aglaé Jézéquel, Zachary M. Labe, Danielle Touma
Pubblicato in: Atmospheric Science Letters, Numero 25, 2024, ISSN 1530-261X
Editore: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/asl.1268

A meta-Gaussian distribution for sub-hourly rainfall

Autori: Marie Boutigny, Pierre Ailliot, Aurore Chaubet, Philippe Naveau, Benoît Saussol
Pubblicato in: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Numero 37, 2023, Pagina/e 3915-3927, ISSN 1436-3240
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-023-02487-0

Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods

Autori: Shijie Jiang, Larisa Tarasova, Guo Yu, Jakob Zscheischler
Pubblicato in: Science Advances, Numero 10, 2024, ISSN 2375-2548
Editore: American Association for the Advancement of Scienc
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adl4005

Winter climate preconditioning of summer vegetation extremes in the Northern Hemisphere

Autori: Mohit Anand, Raed Hamed, Nora Linscheid, Patrícia S Silva, Julie Andre, Jakob Zscheischler, Freya K Garry, Ana Bastos
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 19, 2024, Pagina/e 094045, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad627d

Compound wind and precipitation extremes across the Indo-Pacific: climatology, variability and drivers

Autori: Delei Li, Yang Chen, Martina Messmer, Yuchao Zhu, Jianlong Feng, Baoshu Yin, Emanuele Bevacqua
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 49, 14, 2022, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl098594

Could an extremely cold central European winter such as 1963 happen again despite climate change?

Autori: Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numero 5, 2024, Pagina/e 943-957, ISSN 2698-4016
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024

Foundations of attribution in climate-change science

Autori: Elisabeth A Lloyd, Theodore G Shepherd
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research: Climate, Numero 2, 2023, Pagina/e 035014, ISSN 2752-5295
Editore: IOP Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/2752-5295/aceea1

Causal inference for time series

Autori: Jakob Runge, Andreas Gerhardus, Gherardo Varando, Veronika Eyring, Gustau Camps-Valls
Pubblicato in: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Numero 4, 2023, Pagina/e 487-505, ISSN 2662-138X
Editore: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s43017-023-00431-y

Extreme and compound ocean events are key drivers of projected low pelagic fish biomass

Autori: Natacha Le Grix, William L. Cheung, Gabriel Reygondeau, Jakob Zscheischler, Thomas L. Frölicher
Pubblicato in: Global Change Biology, Numero 29, 2025, Pagina/e 6478-6492, ISSN 1354-1013
Editore: Blackwell Publishing Inc.
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16968

Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics

Autori: Pascal Yiou, Camille Cadiou, Davide Faranda, Aglaé Jézéquel, Nemo Malhomme, George Miloshevich, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac
Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numero 6, 2023, ISSN 2397-3722
Editore: Nature Portfolio
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00500-5

Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides

Autori: Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Carlo De Michele
Pubblicato in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numero 24, 2025, Pagina/e 2689-2704, ISSN 1684-9981
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024

Joint stochastic simulation of extreme coastal and offshore significant wave heights

Autori: Juliette Legrand, Pierre Ailliot, Philippe Naveau, Nicolas Raillard
Pubblicato in: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Numero 17, 2023, ISSN 1932-6157
Editore: Institute of Mathematical Statistics
DOI: 10.1214/23-aoas1766

Domain knowledge-driven variational recurrent networks for drought monitoring

Autori: Mengxue Zhang, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls
Pubblicato in: Remote Sensing of Environment, Numero 311, 2024, Pagina/e 114252, ISSN 0034-4257
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114252

Summer Deep Depressions Increase Over the Eastern North Atlantic

Autori: Fabio D'Andrea, Fabio D'andrea, Jean-Philippe Duvel, Gwendal Rivière, Robert Vautard, Christophe Cassou, Julien Cattiaux, Davide Faranda, Tamara Happé, Aglaé Jézéquel, Aurelien Ribes, Pascal Yiou
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research LEtters, 2024, ISSN 1944-8007
Editore: Wiley
DOI: 10.22541/essoar.170785883.38291063/v1

Multi-Modal Learning for Geospatial Vegetation Forecasting

Autori: Vitus Benson, Claire Robin, Christian Requena-Mesa, Lazaro Alonso, Nuno Carvalhais, José Cortés, Zhihan Gao, Nora Linscheid, Mélanie Weynants, Markus Reichstein
Pubblicato in: 2024 IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), 2024, Pagina/e 27788-27799
Editore: IEEE
DOI: 10.1109/cvpr52733.2024.02625

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