Periodic Reporting for period 1 - MYRIAD-EU (Multi-hazard and sYstemic framework for enhancing Risk-Informed mAnagement and Decision-making in the E.U.)
Reporting period: 2021-09-01 to 2023-02-28
Natural hazards have caused ~100,000 fatalities and over €100 billion in economic losses in the EU since 2000. The last decade saw huge scientific advances in understanding natural hazard risks, and within the EU there has been a shift in practice from managing hazards to managing risks. Nevertheless, most research and policy still addresses risk from a single-hazard, single-sector, perspective. This presents obstacles for addressing real-world challenges faced by risk managers and other decision-makers. MYRIAD-EU’s vision is to catalyse the paradigm shift required to move towards a multi-risk, multi-sector, systemic approach to risk assessment and management. To achieve this vision, our overall aim is that by the end of MYRIAD-EU policy-makers, decision-makers, and practitioners will be able to develop forward-looking disaster risk management pathways that assess trade-offs and synergies across sectors, hazards, and scales.
To achieve this overall vision and aim, the main objectives of MYRIAD-EU are to:
• Develop a common baseline and understanding on multi-hazard and multi-risk definitions, indicators, functions, methods, tools, and policies;
• Co-develop and co-evaluate a harmonised framework in five multi-hazard, multi-sector, multi-scale Pilots bridging science and practice;
• Build a catalogue of dynamic feedbacks between risk drivers, including systemic vulnerability;
• Develop and test software for generating quantitative and qualitative multi-hazard and multi-risk scenarios;
• Develop forward-looking DRM pathways in five Pilots;
• Synthesise the results; and
• Improve knowledge exchange on multi-hazard risk assessment and management.
To achieve this overall vision and aim, the main objectives of MYRIAD-EU are to:
• Develop a common baseline and understanding on multi-hazard and multi-risk definitions, indicators, functions, methods, tools, and policies;
• Co-develop and co-evaluate a harmonised framework in five multi-hazard, multi-sector, multi-scale Pilots bridging science and practice;
• Build a catalogue of dynamic feedbacks between risk drivers, including systemic vulnerability;
• Develop and test software for generating quantitative and qualitative multi-hazard and multi-risk scenarios;
• Develop forward-looking DRM pathways in five Pilots;
• Synthesise the results; and
• Improve knowledge exchange on multi-hazard risk assessment and management.
A selection of scientific outcomes of MYRIAD-EU in the first reporting period:
• Completing a thorough diagnosis of the multi-hazard, multi-risk management challenge, including the publication of a handbook of multi-hazard, multi-risk concepts, definitions, and indicators and a report on policies, policy-making processes, and governance for multi-hazard, multi-risk management (WP1);
• Launching a WIKI-platform (www.disasterriskgateway.net) (WP1) and designing a prototype dashboard (WP2);
• Co-developing an initial framework for multi-hazard, multi-sector, systemic risk management (WP2), and testing its usefulness with our Pilot Users and Pilot Stakeholders during five Pilot Workshops (one in each pilot region (WP3);
• Successfully started the 5 MYRIAD-EU Pilot studies, including: developing detailed work plans, defining current challenges and opportunities, establishing Pilot User and Pilot Stakeholder groups, and holding first Pilot Workshops (WP3)
• Designing a method for capturing evidence of dynamic feedbacks between risk drivers, by designing studies using mixed method approaches including: interviews, literature reviews, Machine Learning, and remote sensing data.
• Developing a first global multi-hazard dataset (WP5)
• Publishing a conceptual approach for designing Dynamic Adaptive Pathways in a Multi-Risk setting (DAPP-MR) (WP6)
• Published >10 peer-reviewed scientific papers relating to MYRIAD-EU, all of which can be found on our MYRIAD-EU Zenodo Community page.
• Completing a thorough diagnosis of the multi-hazard, multi-risk management challenge, including the publication of a handbook of multi-hazard, multi-risk concepts, definitions, and indicators and a report on policies, policy-making processes, and governance for multi-hazard, multi-risk management (WP1);
• Launching a WIKI-platform (www.disasterriskgateway.net) (WP1) and designing a prototype dashboard (WP2);
• Co-developing an initial framework for multi-hazard, multi-sector, systemic risk management (WP2), and testing its usefulness with our Pilot Users and Pilot Stakeholders during five Pilot Workshops (one in each pilot region (WP3);
• Successfully started the 5 MYRIAD-EU Pilot studies, including: developing detailed work plans, defining current challenges and opportunities, establishing Pilot User and Pilot Stakeholder groups, and holding first Pilot Workshops (WP3)
• Designing a method for capturing evidence of dynamic feedbacks between risk drivers, by designing studies using mixed method approaches including: interviews, literature reviews, Machine Learning, and remote sensing data.
• Developing a first global multi-hazard dataset (WP5)
• Publishing a conceptual approach for designing Dynamic Adaptive Pathways in a Multi-Risk setting (DAPP-MR) (WP6)
• Published >10 peer-reviewed scientific papers relating to MYRIAD-EU, all of which can be found on our MYRIAD-EU Zenodo Community page.
Next to the scientific results described above, MYRIAD-EU has made the following progress towards the Expected Impacts.
“...consensus in better definitions, indicators and functions to characterise multi-hazard risk through enhanced inter-disciplinary collaboration...”
Our handbook of multi-hazard, multi-risk concepts, definitions, and indicators (D1.2) and report on policies, policy-making processes, and governance for multi-hazard, multi-risk management (D1.3) provide clear definitions related to multi-hazard and multi-risk, as well as reviewing existing functions, tools, and approaches used in the research community, and policies and policy-making processes. The content has been used to populate our Disaster Risk Gateway multi-risk WIKI.
“...prioritisation of investments & selection of effective DRM options...” & “...enhanced risk-informed decisions … addressing trade-offs between... options”
The guidance document on collaborative systems analysis approaches available in D6.2 gives an overview of tools and approaches that can support system understanding and presents a flexible, generic approach to collaborative systems analysis being applied in the real-world Pilots. We published a scientific paper that proposes DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk.
“...enhanced capacity for identification of vulnerable, threatened areas and infrastructures most at risk from multi hazards in Europe”
We have developed a multi-hazard event set based on hazard footprints of 9 single hazard events. There is explicit interest from various EU Horizon Europe projects. including MIRACA, to use this dataset in their European assessments. We have developed an initial version of our framework for multi-hazard, multi-sector, systemic risk management (D2.1) along with guidance protocols for implementing the framework. The framework has been discussed with our Pilot Core User Groups and Pilot Stakeholder Groups during the Pilot Workshops.
“...better informed forward-looking national risk assessments that take into account long-term drivers such as climate change…enhance implementation of existing legislation and streamlining of policies…”
Our Initial Pilot Workshops leding to an improved awareness among local stakeholders on multi-hazard, exposure and vulnerability issues, and enhanced potential for visualization and benchmarking of multi-risk issues, in line with the goals of the Mission Adaptation to Climate Change. MYRIAD-EU contributed to the European Commission’s Science for Climate Action report, accompanying the launch of the IPCC Working Groups 2 Assessment Report in 2022.
“...enhanced understanding of relationships and interactions of multiple hazards … driven by … changes on different time and spatial scales”
We have published two scientific perspective papers outlining current knowledge, challenges, and future directions in research for improving our understanding of relationships and interactions of multiple hazards. A multi-hazard database has been developed.
“...better knowledge exchange through platforms such as DRMKC, and stakeholder networks on emergent risks and extreme events (e.g. Community of Users, Risk KAN)”
The project coordinator was a panellist at the 6th DRMKC Annual Seminar (November 2022) and the MYRIAD-EU data manager attended the DRMKC Data Hub workshops. There is intense collaboration between MYRIAD-EU and Risk KAN, with two project members co-chairing the board, and two project members co-chairing the working group on Multi-Hazard Early Warning. We have given presentations at the Risk KAN working group on Compound Events and Impacts monthly online seminars, as well as a keynote speech at the Risk KAN session on compound and multi-hazard risk at AGU2023. We also engaged at the UNDRR European Platform, UNDRR Data Week, and annual workshops/events of network groups including FEHRL Members Workshop, ERIAFF annual conference, HOTREC annual assembly, and AON annual research meeting.
“...consensus in better definitions, indicators and functions to characterise multi-hazard risk through enhanced inter-disciplinary collaboration...”
Our handbook of multi-hazard, multi-risk concepts, definitions, and indicators (D1.2) and report on policies, policy-making processes, and governance for multi-hazard, multi-risk management (D1.3) provide clear definitions related to multi-hazard and multi-risk, as well as reviewing existing functions, tools, and approaches used in the research community, and policies and policy-making processes. The content has been used to populate our Disaster Risk Gateway multi-risk WIKI.
“...prioritisation of investments & selection of effective DRM options...” & “...enhanced risk-informed decisions … addressing trade-offs between... options”
The guidance document on collaborative systems analysis approaches available in D6.2 gives an overview of tools and approaches that can support system understanding and presents a flexible, generic approach to collaborative systems analysis being applied in the real-world Pilots. We published a scientific paper that proposes DAPP-MR as a disaster risk management pathways framework for complex, dynamic multi-risk.
“...enhanced capacity for identification of vulnerable, threatened areas and infrastructures most at risk from multi hazards in Europe”
We have developed a multi-hazard event set based on hazard footprints of 9 single hazard events. There is explicit interest from various EU Horizon Europe projects. including MIRACA, to use this dataset in their European assessments. We have developed an initial version of our framework for multi-hazard, multi-sector, systemic risk management (D2.1) along with guidance protocols for implementing the framework. The framework has been discussed with our Pilot Core User Groups and Pilot Stakeholder Groups during the Pilot Workshops.
“...better informed forward-looking national risk assessments that take into account long-term drivers such as climate change…enhance implementation of existing legislation and streamlining of policies…”
Our Initial Pilot Workshops leding to an improved awareness among local stakeholders on multi-hazard, exposure and vulnerability issues, and enhanced potential for visualization and benchmarking of multi-risk issues, in line with the goals of the Mission Adaptation to Climate Change. MYRIAD-EU contributed to the European Commission’s Science for Climate Action report, accompanying the launch of the IPCC Working Groups 2 Assessment Report in 2022.
“...enhanced understanding of relationships and interactions of multiple hazards … driven by … changes on different time and spatial scales”
We have published two scientific perspective papers outlining current knowledge, challenges, and future directions in research for improving our understanding of relationships and interactions of multiple hazards. A multi-hazard database has been developed.
“...better knowledge exchange through platforms such as DRMKC, and stakeholder networks on emergent risks and extreme events (e.g. Community of Users, Risk KAN)”
The project coordinator was a panellist at the 6th DRMKC Annual Seminar (November 2022) and the MYRIAD-EU data manager attended the DRMKC Data Hub workshops. There is intense collaboration between MYRIAD-EU and Risk KAN, with two project members co-chairing the board, and two project members co-chairing the working group on Multi-Hazard Early Warning. We have given presentations at the Risk KAN working group on Compound Events and Impacts monthly online seminars, as well as a keynote speech at the Risk KAN session on compound and multi-hazard risk at AGU2023. We also engaged at the UNDRR European Platform, UNDRR Data Week, and annual workshops/events of network groups including FEHRL Members Workshop, ERIAFF annual conference, HOTREC annual assembly, and AON annual research meeting.